Bear Flag Republic Radio WeblogLiving out on the left coast |
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5/1/05; 8:38:57 AM |
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LIVE webcam Cumbres & Toltec rail yard in Chama, New Mexico.
Current BlogRoll.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005
Secrets: AppleScript downloads. Download Adam Goldstein’s AppleScripts.
[Macworld] comments < 7:25:42 PM 
>The End of Moore's Law. BBC is currently offering an article on Moore's Law 40 years later. In Gordon Moore's original observation, made in 1965, he argued that the number of transistors per integrated circuit increased as an exponential function, doubling about every year. The pace wasn't able to sustain quite this level, but Moore made a downward revision in 1975, saying that they doubled about every 2 years. Some claim that he revised it to 18 months, which, in the past 20 years, has proven even more reliable (Moore's original paper-[pdf]). When this prediction was made, the processor was cost-effective at 50 transistors per chip. Soon after, Intel produced the 4004, the world's first single chip microprocessor. The 4004 contained 2300 transistors, and was shrunk to an eighth of an inch wide by a sixth of an inch long. Today, the Itanium 2 chip contains half a billion transistors, or 229, to look at it in context. Wikipedia has a pretty nice graph of the relevant data. There is now good reason to suggest that Moore's Law, which has been so reliable for so long, may be on the verge of losing its relevance. Many have suggested that Moore's Law can no longer be maintained because of economic factors or technological limitations. The intent of this article is to show why the opposite is true. I believe we are on the verge of outstripping Moore's doubling time. [kuro5hin.org] comments < 6:40:36 PM
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