History Favors Angels? But There's a Twist Here
Dave Winer this morning links to a New York Times piece that outlines why the odds favor the Angels in the last two games of the 2002 World Series. But there's a hidden gem here for Giants fans.
In that piece, Murray Chass points out that, " In [the last 20 years], teams have taken a lead of three games to two on the road seven times, and six times returned home without the World Series championship." This, he thinks, mitigates the 2002 edition in the Angels' favor.
But later in the piece, he points out that three of those six instances were the only times in history that all of the games were won by the home team. Clearly statistical anomalies. This Series is more like most of them that have been played: teams have won at home and on the road.
I'm staying with my original prediction: Giants in six. They win tonight. But an important caveat here: if the Giants manage to lose today, then I think the odds swing strongly to the overcoming, charmed Angels who will then likely win it in seven. (That's not an original idea. As I posted yesterday, Peter Gammons of ESPN makes the same prediction.)
10:30:59 AM
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