The Farmer's Weblog
 |
Friday, October 18, 2002 |
U.S. Cotton Outlook
The MY 2002/03 U.S. production forecast was lowered slightly this month (less than one percent) as a combination of weather problems in the Southeast offset higher forecasts in all other regions. The domestic use forecast is unchanged from last month. The U.S. export forecast was reduced nearly 2 percent, primarily because export sales thus far in the marketing year have been slower than expected. These changes pushed up the U.S. ending stocks forecast 100,000 bales to 6.8 million.
For all of the details (and there are many) check out the link.
6:21:27 PM 
Average spot quotations were 120 points higher than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural
Marketing Service?s Cotton Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike
35-36 and 43-49, strength 26.5-28.4, uniformity 81) in the seven designated markets averaged 38.54 cents per
pound for the week ending Thursday, October 17. The weekly average was up from 37.34 cents per pound for the
previous week. Quotations ranged from a low of 37.83 cents on Monday, October 14 to a high of 39.17 cents on
Thursday, October 17. The NY December 2002 futures settlement price ended the week at 44.04 cents compared
to 43.54 cents a week ago.
Western markets. Spot cotton trading continued inactive in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Supplies increased as
the harvest expanded. Demand was very light. Buyers were waiting for new crop supplies to be offered. No
purchases for domestic mills were reported as mill agents rejected merchant prices. No forward contracting was
reported. A moderate volume of 2002-crop option-to-purchase business was done between growers and merchants
at around 70.50 cents, basis color 31, leaf 3, staple 35, mike 35-49, all entitlements to the buyer, delivered as ginned
(UD free, FOB warehouse). Agents for mills in Japan purchased a light amount of Acala cotton for November to
December shipment. Receiving and shipping of earlier sales by longshoremen was slow because of backlogs at
West Coast ports. According to NASS, the California crop was twenty-five percent harvested as of October 13.
The harvest was in full swing across much of the San Joaquin Valley. Defoliant applications continued in only a
few locations. The crop remained in mostly good to excellent condition. Excellent weather continued.
5:14:34 PM
The cotton market finally experienced a weeklong rally, rising from last week[base ']s 42.84 close to the Friday morning high of 44.55 cents. Nevertheless, the market remains range bound and will likely see a few more weeks trading between 41.50 and 46.50 cents. Sooner or later, most likely later, the market is expected to move higher. As much as I would like to see December move higher, my odds favor the first price increase of any significance coming in the March contract.
5:08:57 PM
About The Farmer's Weblog
Agriculture, Commodity markets, Software, Information technology are the focus of this weblog.
So what is a weblog, you ask? A weblog is a web page that you can subscribe to. With weblog software like
Radio you can subscribe to any number of weblogs and then simply check a single news page to find all of the new information posted. The software checks for new updates every hour and posts them to your news page. The Radio software also lets you create your own weblogs. This software wonder even has a free trial period and on top of that is not expensive.
Currently you can subscribe to The Farmer's Weblog by just clicking on the XML coffee cup icon above while Radio is active. Or if you are using another weblog news reader, copy the RSS link hiding behind the xml icon above and add it to you subscription list. You can also subscribe to the individual categories, such as cotton or cattle. Click on their link at the top of the links list and then use their XML icons to set up your subscriptions.
