The Farmer's Weblog

Friday, November 29, 2002

FAPRI 2002 U.S. Baseline

Check out FAPRI's baseline model of cotton prices. FAPRI provides one of the few pubic models of the agriculture sector. A must read for thinking about long term conditions in US and world agriculture. The entire ag sector not just cotton is considered.
10:32:57 PM    comment []

Plant Biotechnology: Current and Potential Impact For Improving Pest Management In U.S. Agriculture:
Numerous surveys have found that growers are achieving higher yields and attaining higher profits by planting Bt varieties, due to better pest control and decreased insect control costs. The average increase in net income in 2000, comparing Bt to conventional varieties, was $20/ acre, taking into account the technology fee. On average, per acre insect control costs were $2 higher. This increased cost was outweighed by a yield increase of 36 lbs/ acre.

A major study on biotech. Academic but still interesting. Basic reference material.
9:55:14 PM    comment []

U.S. Exports Off to Slow Start Towards 10.8 Million-Bale Forecast -- Cotton World Markts and Trade Nov 2002
As of the end of October, total U.S. export commitments (accumulated exports plus outstanding sales) for MY 2002/03 were 25 percent below commitments at the same time last year. Still, at only three months into the marketing year, there is time for U.S. exports to increase dramatically, and reason to expect a final export total near last year's 11-million bale estimate. World import demand is forecast at 29.9 million bales this year, up marginally from 29.6 million in MY 2001/02. The U.S. is expected to have an exportable supply of raw cotton in MY 2002/03 of 17.5 million bales, 1.0 million bales less than in 2001/02. At the same time, however, the foreign exportable supply is forecast to fall more than 6 million bales, due mainly to rapidly expanding consumption in China and poor weather in Australia.
9:24:09 PM    comment []

USDA AMS Weekly Cotton Report..
World cotton consumption in 2002/03 (August/July marketing year) is forecast at a record 96.2 million bales, more than 2 million bales above a year earlier, as global demand for textiles and apparel continues its rebound from the stagnant growth seen in the 1990s. Foreign mill use this season is expected to rise to its fourth consecutive record high while U.S. mill use remains flat. The largest gains are expected in China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey.
9:14:41 PM    comment []

This Page was last updated: 12/29/03; 3:38:03 PM
Copyright 2003 Russell Gum
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