The Farmer's Weblog

Monday, October 14, 2002

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production is raised for 2002 as higher beef and poultry production are expected to more than offset lower pork production. Beef production is raised this month as dairy producers are culling larger than normal numbers of less-efficient cows. Although eggs set data indicate fourth-quarter broiler production will be lower than forecast last month, higher-than-expected production during the third quarter results in a raised annual 2002 production forecast. Cattle prices are lowered as supplies of beef are forecast higher, and hog prices are raised as fourth- quarter slaughter is lowered from last month.

...As producers are expected to continue marketing large numbers of heavyweight cattle, beef production forecasts in the first half of 2003 are raised.... Cattle prices in 2003 are forecast lower than last month as beef supplies will remain relatively large.

--The above is a COMPUTER GENERATED SUMMARY-- If you spot something of interest here go check out the origional.
2:43:56 PM    comment []

In The Cattle Markets October 7, 2002 Dillon Feuz, Ph.D.
Slaughter cattle prices were lower this past week, with the bulk of the trade occurring in the southern plains at $64 to $65 and trade occurring in the north at mostly $100 dressed. Nebraska slaughter steers (35-65% Choice) averaged $99.56, dressed weight, compared to $102.47 the previous week. USDA[base ']s weekly weighted average price for Kansas slaughter steers (35-65% Choice) was $64.17 compared to $65.90 the previous week. USDA[base ']s estimate of the light Choice boxed beef cutout was $113.44, down $2.31 from the previous week. The light Choice-Select spread averaged $9.87, compared to $9.17 the prior week. Average feeder cattle prices across Nebraska auctions last week were generally lower, with 700-800 pound steers averaging $82.76 and 500- 600 pound steers averaging $89.69. Prices across four Kansas auctions averaged 81.69 and 85.36 for 700-800 and 500-600 pound steers, respectively.
10:19:29 AM    comment []

COLD STORAGE LARGE
Frozen stocks of meat and poultry remain large. According to USDA, stocks of red meat increased in August after declining for three consecutive months. At the end of August, red meat frozen stocks were at 951 million pounds, and were 30 percent above a year earlier. In contrast to red meat, as of August 30th of this year, poultry frozen stocks declined slightly compared to a month earlier. Still, poultry stocks were huge, exceeding 1.5 billion pounds for the third consecutive month after reaching that level for the first time on record as of June 30th, 2002.
9:50:06 AM    comment []

Trends . . .HOGS AND PIGS REPORT PROVIDES KEY NUMBERS
U.S. hog slaughter this fall will be the key driver of hog prices and will be a major factor influencing prices of other livestock and poultry prices. USDA[base ']s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report (released September 27) confirmed expectations that slaughter will be large this fall. But, year-to-year increases in hog slaughter are expected to moderate as the fourth quarter progresses. USDA[base ']s report also showed that producers have been adjusting breeding hog numbers rather aggressively. So, looking ahead to 2003, the report supported forecasts for year-to-year increases in hog and pork prices beginning in the second quarter of next year.
9:47:26 AM    comment []

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