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Stephen Roach
No, it is not. The conditions are not ripe yet
While I have been arguing for close to two years now that the USD is grossly over-valued, I don’t hold the view that we are witnessing the beginning of the end for the USD, at least not yet.
Bottom line
Recent developments in the currency markets suggest that the worst is behind us. If the market is right on this view, then the USD should continue to weaken. Such a development would be very consistent with our "Dollar Smile" framework. However, I hold a more pessimistic outlook on the global economy, and am looking for risk aversion to rise again. If this scenario materialises, I believe the USD will be able to reassert itself again, particularly against the Asian axes. But this rally likely will be short-lived. When US yields bottom, fear-motivated capital inflows into the US will dwindle, undermining support for the USD. That will likely be the true beginning of the end for the USD.
12:57:53 PM Google It! 
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