Tuesday, April 30, 2002

Info on Venezuala "Human intelligence sources in Venezuela and Washington told STRATFOR April 14 that the Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. State Department may have been involved separately in the events that took place in Caracas between April 5 and April 13. If the information is correct, the reinstatement of President Hugo Chavez less than 48 hours after he was toppled by a civilian-military coup could have disastrous implications for the Bush administration's policy in Latin America." " . . . if the Chavez regime produces convincing evidence of U.S. government involvement in the failed coup -- that it could poison Washington's relations with governments throughout Latin America. Efforts to win regional support for increased U.S. military support to Colombia, and to other Andean ridge countries battling the twin threats of international drug trafficking and nominally Marxist insurgencies, would be set back significantly in Latin America and Washington. The Bush administration's efforts to pursue more free trade agreements in the region also would be undermined." "This also would give a tremendous boost to Chavez's leadership status and credibility with populist and nationalist groups across Latin America that view the United States as a threat and that oppose U.S.-style capitalist democracy. " "If the sources are correct, the Bush administration's carefully laid plans soon may backfire." 11:46:51 AM  Google It!  comment  []

Iran on the Brink "Last Wednesday, April 24 [2002], an obscure deputy in the Iranian parliament went to the podium at 10:45 in the morning to read a prepared statement. Few in that hall could have known what was coming: a fatwa issued by one of the country's most prestigious and revered religious leaders, the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. His message was directed far beyond the boundaries of Iran, to all members of the Shia faith. It was a powerful and politically important message: Suicide terrorism is antithetical to the teachings of Islam, and those who practice it, and kill women, children, and babies, are doomed to eternity in hell. The struggle between the Palestinian people and Israel must be resolved by other means, above all by negotiations." "This is an event of enormous importance, for it is the first time that a leading Iranian cleric has condemned suicide terrorism, and it is an explicit attack on the Iranian regime, which has praised the terrorists and called upon Iranians to volunteer for suicide missions." "Over the weekend, new demonstrations broke out near Tehran, where many workers have not been paid for a year! At Friday prayers, in an amazing confession of failure, Ayatollah Janati — the head of the Council of Guardians and one of the five most powerful men in the country — admitted to the faithful that Iran was in desperate economic straits. Iran, he said, was as badly off as Argentina, perhaps even worse." "And what are [U.S.] leaders doing about this? They are doing nothing. No, they are doing worse than nothing. . . . The Iranian people need to hear and see that America believes in them, supports their cause, and hates their oppressors." "The stakes are very high. The fall of the mullahs in Tehran would send a devastating message to the entire Islamic world: Theocracy has been tried, and it has failed. Osama bin Laden's vision has been rejected by the people of Afghanistan and the people of Iran, by Sunnis and Shia alike." "The most important thing is our leaders' words to the Iranians. We want the fall of the regime. That is what the war on terrorism is all about. To remain silent is to be complicit in the repression of Iran. There is no diplomatic 'solution.' We want a free Iran. Don't we?" — Mr. Ledeen is an NRO contributing editor & resident scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute. He is author, most recently, of Tocqueville on American Character. 11:43:09 AM  Google It!  comment  []

Getting to know Hu Hu Jintao, who will in the autumn probably take over as leader of China’s ruling Communist Party, arrives in the United States this weekend for his first official visit. Will it mark the start of a beautiful friendship with President George Bush? Not if recent Sino-American tensions are any guide " . . . China 'opposes the strong [U.S.] lording it over the weak and the big bullying the small.' China . . . 'has long pledged not to seek hegemony' in its region." "Mr Hu's travels follow a trip by Mr Jiang that ended on April 20th and which took him to, among other countries, Libya and Iran . . . " " . . . China's view of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict: that it was critical of 'Israeli killings', and that Israel should withdraw from all occupied territories." "But China's main concern, and the one that is likely to be top of Mr Hu's list in his talks with the Americans, is much closer to home. This is American military and political support for Taiwan, which China considers its own." "The Chinese were deeply disturbed and were none the happier when it was reported that Mr Wolfowitz had repeated words used by Mr Bush last year, that America will do 'whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself'." "To China, all of this feels like a slap in the face. 'China tried to co-operate with the Americans in the war against terror, but the Bush administration is not doing much to promote the relationship' . . . the dominant line coming from China is that the Taiwan issue 'could become a problem, not that it is a problem'. The tricky bit in diplomatic negotiations is judging where the 'red lines' are." "It is one Mr Jiang's basic policies, and one he hopes will form part of his legacy, that China can stay stable and grow stronger only if it avoids serious conflict with the United States. The apprentice leader will be aware that Mr Bush could stay in power for another seven years. The chemistry between the two men could set the tone for Chinese-American relations for a fair time." 11:18:10 AM  Google It!  comment  []