Sunday, June 22, 2003

The End of the World as We Know It Andrew McKillop writes: In the 12 years after Cheap Oil Crusaders stormed Kuwait in 1991, the advanced industrial economies, or First World has reaped not only the Peace Dividend from the imploded and collapsed Soviet Empire, but also the giddy delights of oil at the 'natural' and very low price that New Economics sets for this Sunset Commodity. However, in 1991, cheap oil gave no growth dividend to the First World economy, nor a vote dividend to George Bush I, who was not re-elected. By a fatal error of timing, probably well noted by George Bush II, it takes time for those courageous, pro-active consumers to crawl away from their TV entertainment console playing smart missile clips, and start spending again. Well could George Bush I proclaim the New World Order had now ensured the 'free flow' of Cheap Oil, but "It's the economy, stupid." was a winning line for his Clinton rival. Exactly as in 1986 (when oil prices had plunged by two-thirds) there was no upsurge in economic growth, making low unemployment, and shopping malls stuffed with cheap manufactured goods from China, SE Asia and India unpersuasive in luring fickle voters to come back for more. A few more months proved necessary before the 1990s Clinton Boom lurched into being. In the following years of 'stable non inflationary growth', and the near slump following George Bush II's arrival in the White House, world oil demand increased by about 18% or 13 Million barrels/day (Mbd), that is about 25% more than the entire production capacity of Saudi Arabia. In the period from 2003-2010, if predictions of the International Energy Agency (IEA), or of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) are proved correct, world oil demand will expand by about 1.8 Mbd per year, that is roughly another 13 Mbd in 7 years. Yet another "new Saudi Arabia" will be needed, simply to satisft this additional demand. Such factors, surely, were taken into account by George Bush II and his American Century ideologues when calculating their Iraq War play. World population growth we can also note, results in about 1 Billion more consumers today, compared with 1991, and population growth will likely add about another 600 Million by 2010. Now by definition the First World is rich, has low unemployment and even lower inflation, but its economic structure is a de-industrialised, service dominated husk totally dependent on cheap manufactured imports from the New Industrial Countries, which now include China and India, and on cheap energy imports from the world's oil and gas exporters. The 'mature service economy' provides great potential for imagining the economy has little or nothing to do with farming, mining and industry. This fantasy, or lie is of course actively promoted, even presented as a proof of cultural superiority - but in fact the entire urban industrial system would collapse almost overnight without very traditional land tearing and metal bashing machines and industrial workers generating real and physical wealth from which the service economy extracts more, mostly imaginary 'wealth'. (06/22/03) History of the Global Brain and Memes Howard Bloom writes: Between 65 million years ago and the present, collective intelligence tentatively stretched toward globality once again. The bird species salaciously called tits showed up on the scene roughly ten million years ago. Airborne, they were high-speed spreaders of behavioral memes. It is difficult to tell what kinds of tricks these creatures passed to one another in prehistoric times. Some idea about the tricks comes from an incident famous among animal behaviorists. During the late 1940s, London's milk vendors replaced cardboard bottle caps with aluminum foil. A few blue titmice figured out how to pierce the flimsy metal so they could sip the liquid's crown of unhomogenized cream. So rapidly did this innovation spread that seemingly overnight dairy robbery was fattening the bellies of titmice the length and breadth of the British Isles. Conformity enforcers had spread a potent meme. ... The contagious ways of doing things called "behavioral memes" knitted separate species together. Pleistocene mammals still live side by side in the Serengeti plains of East Africa: the zebra, the wildebeest and the Thompson's gazelle. When the dry season sucks life from their flat pastures in the southeast, these animals make a hundred mile procession north to hilly Kenyan woodlands rich in watered meadow. Zebras lead, each year improvising a new track, but always with the same destination in mind. The herd of wildebeests - a potential chaos of a million animals - is conformity enforced to follow the striped equines. Then the delicate gazelles, taking their memetic cues from the zebras and the wildebeests, are swept by imitative drives to bring up the rear. When the immense migration reaches its goal, the diversity generator of speciation fits these varied animals into a mega-partnership. The first arrivals, zebras, crop the roughest and tallest grass - food too tough for wildebeests to eat. This browsing exposes tender mid-height shoots upon which wildebeests can make their feast. By the time the gazelles appear, the turf is sufficiently low to offer their favorite dish, ground-hugging vegetation. Though memeless, the grasses join the multi-species circle dance, repaying the pruning they've received by sending up fresh shoots and stalks. (06/22/03) Preventing Ovarian Cancer BBC Health -- Cancer scientists believe they have found a gene which - when working properly - may have the ability to stop ovarian cancer developing. Scientists at Cancer Research UK's Edinburgh oncology unit found the gene was not functioning correctly in nine out of 10 cancer tissue samples. When the gene is turned back on within the cancer cells, further growth is suppressed, suggesting it is influential in the body's defences against the tumour. However, it will be some time before the findings translate into new drugs or tests for women. Ovarian cancer is one of the most dangerous for women, as it is often not diagnosed early, making treatment much more difficult. There are more than 6,000 cases diagnosed each year, and more than 4,000 deaths. The human body has a variety of defence systems which it uses to carry out repairs when abnormal cells develop. When these defences fail, or are circumvented, tumours can develop. One of the ways cancer gets a foothold in the body is to somehow "switch off" genes which would normally prevent such abnormal cells from either growing or dividing. The scientists involved in this project believe the gene they are investigating - called OPCML - may be one of these. (06/22/03) Russian Pollution 'killing' the Baltic Sea BBC Environment -- Sweden's Commission on Marine Environment has warned that the Baltic Sea is in a "critical" condition and in danger of dying unless pollution from the Russian city of St Petersburg is drastically cut. Half of the fish species in the Baltic are at levels below the critical biological level, while pregnant Swedish women are being warned not to eat herring - a staple diet - because of dioxins.There is little dispute that St Petersburg - Russia's second-biggest city - is the Baltic's single biggest polluter, and behind many of the problems. "We have come to the end of the road, concerning the sea," Hans Jonsson, chairman of Sweden's commission on the marine environment, told BBC World Service's Politics Of Water programme. "We have huge problems with algaes and plankton growth, with lack of oxygen," Mr Jonsson added. ... "On the Baltic side - Latvia and Russia - they don't clean their water from the towns." The biggest of these towns is St Petersburg, a vast metropolis built on the Neva river. Much of the city's sewage flows untreated into the Neva, and from there directly into the Baltic. "You have a bit of a nutrient soup, which causes large growth of anaerobic bacteria as well as seaweed - which kills all life," explained Dietmar Litmanov, a member of the board of Greenpeace Russia. (06/22/03) No room for Elephants BBC Environment -- Sri Lanka is one of the last havens for wild elephants but the growing conflict with human beings over living space is causing havoc. Walking through the jungle at dusk there is a trail of farmers going to their fields for the nightly elephant vigil. Some carry musket guns, fire brands or torches along with a food parcel and a bottle of something to while away the long night hours. "I have spent such a lot of money planting these crops and tending them - if the elephants come and eat them up that's the end of my life," says farmer AC Simon. For the last three months he has kept himself awake every night in a tree top platform to ward away the marauding elephants. Each animal needs hundreds of square kilometres of territory across which to range but - while Sri Lanka's forest cover is shrinking - its human population is expanding rapidly. Farmers are encroaching on jungle which was once the sole domain of the elephant. The result is injuries and deaths - on both sides of the conflict. "For small babies there are bruises and infected wounds due to some gunshots," explains vet Samanthi Mendis, who tends rescued elephants at the Pinawella Elephant Orphanage. "Once the mother dies these small babies run here and there in the jungle and they get hurt," she says. (06/22/03) Norway moves to protect Coral BBC Nature --A cold-water coral reef discovered in Norwegian waters is to be protected by the Oslo government. Called the Tisler reef, and found only last year, it is thought to be more than a thousand years old. It lies in the Skagerrak, along the submarine border between Norway and Sweden. The Skagerrak links the Baltic to the North Sea. WWF, the global environment programme, welcomed Norway's decision and urged other governments to follow suit. The reef is two kilometres (1.25 miles) long, and lies at depths ranging from 74 to 155 metres (240 to 500 feet). It is the only reef known for yellow lophelia corals, which are important for many other species, including sea fans, sponges, worms, starfish and crustaceans. The corals are also valuable spawning and nursery grounds for several fish, including some commercial species like the orange roughy and the grenadier. WWF says the discovery of the Tisler and the decision to protect it came just in time, as parts have already been damaged by trawling. (06/22/03) 7:44:13 AM

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