My World of “Ought to Be”
by Timothy Wilken, MD










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Wednesday, March 24, 2004
 

Synergic Trusts: Moving Beyond Property

Timothy Wilken, MDTimothy Wilken, MD writes: The collective term we humans use to describe what we value is ‘wealth’. Synergic wealth is that which supports life for self and others.  Synergic Wealth comes in two forms: Synergic Trust and Property. Synergic Trust is wealth that comes to us as a gift. This includes the Life Trust — life itself, the plants and animals which are a gift from God, and Nature, and our human bodies which are a gift from God, Nature, and our Parents. It includes the Earth Trust — the sunshine, air, water, land, minerals, the earth itself all of which come to us freely. This wealth is provided to us by God and Nature. And, thirdly it includes the Time Trust — the accumulated ‘knowing’ from the time-binding of all the humans who have ever lived and died. Our inherited Wisdom, Knowledge, and Information including Architecture, Art, Literature, Music, Science, and Technology. It is the Time Trust that forms the basis of all human progress. We humans are the beneficiaries then of three major trusts — the Life Trust, the Earth Trust and the Time Trust. We, humans can not and do not own these trusts. They are not derived of our lives. They are not the product of our mind or labor. We have not paid for them. There is no moral or rational basis for us to claim ownership. They are not property. If we wish to use and control these trusts, then we must act as trustees, and then only if we act responsibly. As responsible trustees, we must preserve and protect these trusts. We must act as conservationists. (03/24/04)


  b-future:

Natural Gas Outlook 2004

Bill Powers interviews Andy Weissman:  Natural gas fired power plants have become much larger consumers of natural gas in recent years.   Please explain the impact this will have on gas prices in the future. ... Certainly, Bill. Demand for electricity in the U.S. tends to increase every year – typically at the rate of approximately 2.2% per year. Indeed, it is virtually impossible for the U.S. economy as it is currently structured to continue growing without increased demand for electricity. Typically, over the past 10 to 15 years, each 1% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results in a 0.70 to 0.75% increase in electricity consumption. While it is possibly that the ratio can be gradually improved over time, given the time required to rollover the existing stock of electricity-consuming equipment and devices in the U.S., realistically it will take many years to improve this ratio to even 0.65 to 1 or 0.60 to 1. As a practical matter, therefore, either we must expand our supplies of electricity or the economy will need to stop growing; it’s that simple. It is sometimes said that electricity is the life blood of our economy, and that statement is true. For many years (i.e., all through the ‘80’s and ‘90’s), even though demand for electricity continued to grow every year, this increased demand could be met primarily by generating increased megawatt hours from existing coal-fired plants and nuclear plants. This was possible in part as a result of the huge capacity surplus left over from the oil price shocks of the 1970’s and also because of the utility industry’s success in the ‘90’s in learning how to operate existing generating facilities more efficiently and maximize the number of megawatt hours obtained from each plant. By the late ‘90’s, however, utilities in the U.S. reached a point at which, during many hours of the year, they already were operating all of their non-gas fired units and even some of their existing gas-fired plants at maximum levels. To meet incremental electricity demand, therefore, they had no choice other than to build additional generating capacity. Between 1999 and the end of this year, the industry has built more than 215,000 MW of new generating capacity – virtually all of it gas fired – at a cost of over $100 billion. This is the largest construction program ever undertaken by the industry. Now that it has been largely completed, the U.S. has by far and away the largest fleet of gas-fired generating units in the world. More than 40% of all the generating units in the U.S. are now gas-fired (more than double the percentage just 5 years ago). Further, there is now enough gas-fired generation in the U.S. to serve virtually all of the electricity demand in Europe using gas-fired units alone – reflecting a huge capital investment that can not easily be replicated. Many of the existing gas-fired units are not yet fully utilized. At least for the next 7 to 10 years, however (i.e., the minimum lead-time required to build alternative, non-gas-fired sources of generation), the U.S. is now dependent upon increased utilization of its existing armada of gas-fired generating units to meet virtually all of the incremental electricity demands of the U.S. economy. Since nearly 100% of incremental demand must be served by generating units that all burn the same fuel, even relatively a modest increase in electricity demand (i.e., an average of 2.2% per year) can lead to a huge increase in use of natural gas as a fuel to generate electricity (i.e., growth rates that can easily be 3-4 X as high). Our firm has recently completed a study of what this will mean for the U.S. market. The results are shocking: power sector demand for natural gas is likely to grow by at least 350 to 500 BCf per year every year for at least the next decade. Further, the year-over-year increase in consumption is likely to be even larger in 2004 -- since the economy is growing rapidly and summer weather in 2003 caused demand to be lower than will be typical in most years, setting a low standard of comparison. By 2010, demand is likely to increase by at least 3.8 TCf compared to 2010 levels; by 2015, the figure increases to 6.1 TCf. In a market in which supplies are likely to be increasingly tight, this growth in power sector consumption inevitably will put unprecedented demand on natural gas prices in the U.S. market – and therefore inevitably Canada as well. (03/24/04)


  b-CommUnity:

Growth of Human Population Slowing

US Census BureauBBC Science -- The growth rate of the world population has slowed down, according to the US Census Bureau. Its report says there were 74 million more people in 2002 - well below the 87 million added in 1989-90. The rate of growth peaked 40 years ago, when it stood at about 2.2% a year. The bureau partly attributes the drop to women having fewer children. It also projects a population decline in Africa because of the lower life expectancy due to HIV-Aids. In 1990 women around the world gave birth to 3.3 children on average, the report says. By 2002, the average had dropped to 2.6 children - slightly above the level needed to assure replacement of the population. The bureau's projections show the level of fertility for the world as a whole descending below replacement level by 2050. It forecasts there will be nearly 9.1bn people by 2050, just under a 50% increase from the 6.2bn in 2002. The report suggests that the proportion of people over the age of 65 will continue to increase - from 7% to 17% by 2050. The projections also indicate that by 2010, some African countries will experience falls in life expectancy at birth to about 30 years - a level not seen since the early 20th Century. Much of this trend is likely to result from Aids, the report says. (03/24/04)


  b-CommUnity:

Beach Front Property on Mars

View from OpportunityBBC Science -- The US space agency has announced that its robotic Mars rover Opportunity is parked on what was once the shore of a salty Martian sea. There is multiple evidence that the surface of Mars was awash with liquid water at some time in its past. But the latest findings from Nasa's robot explorers on the Red Planet are fleshing out a picture of what Mars must have been like when it was wet. Opportunity has been studying the rocks in a small crater since January. Earlier in March, scientists announced that rocks at Opportunity's landing site at Meridiani Planum once had water seep slowly through them. "What's happened since then is we have found what I believe to be strong evidence that the rocks themselves were sediments that were laid down in liquid water," Professor Steve Squyres told a told a news conference in Washington, US. The earlier finding suggested a large quantity of liquid water had existed at Meridiani Planum. The latest announcement confirms that there was either a sea, or a series of pools on the surface. ... Layered rocks can be formed by volcanic activity. But Nasa scientists said the presence of cross-bedding in the Martian outcrop, inclined discontinuities between different layers of the rock confirmed that the Martian rocks were sedimentary. Professor Steve Squyres, principal scientific investigator for the rovers, added that high quantities of the element bromine in the rocks was one of the key pieces of evidence suggesting the outcrop was once a shore. On Earth, this is characteristic of rocks that have had sea water evaporate from them. Salts in the rock pointed to evaporation. This suggested a past environment where water came and went. (03/24/04)


  b-theInternet:

Medicare Broke by 2019 ?

My Way News -- Medicare will have to begin dipping into its trust fund this year to keep up with expenditures and will go broke by 2019 without changes in a program that is swelling because of rising health costs, trustees reported Tuesday. Social Security's finances showed little change, and its projected insolvency date remained 2042. The deteriorating financial picture for the health care program for older and disabled Americans is a result, in part, of the new Medicare prescription drug law that will swell costs by more than $500 billion over 10 years, according to the annual report by government trustees. Provisions of the law that President Bush signed into law in December "raise serious doubt about the sustainability of Medicare under current financing arrangements," the trustees said. The 2019 go-broke date for the Medicare trust fund, which is devoted primarily to paying beneficiaries' hospital bills, is seven years sooner than what the trustees projected last year. The trustees' report is the first official estimates of the long-term costs of the new Medicare law in December. As they did last year, the trustees said that projected lower tax receipts devoted to the program and higher expenditures for inpatient hospital care also contributed to the growing financial problem. ... A big reason for an earlier insolvency date "will be a direct result of increased payments to private health plans," said Terri Shaw, an analyst with the liberal Center for American Progress. Last year, Medicare's insolvency date was moved up to 2026 from 2030. The projected insolvency date for Social Security, on the other hand, was extended to 2042, one year later than what was forecast in 2002. The 2003 report also projected that Medicare will have to begin dipping into its trust fund in 2013 to keep up with expenditures. (03/24/04)


  b-theInternet:


6:21:07 AM    


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