"The End of Web Hosting As We Know It. SOAP, .Net and EJBs (Enterprise Java Beans) will bring about the end of web hosting, as we currently know it. I've been thinking about this for at least a year, and listening to Don Ferguson (one of only 56 IBM Fellows) at Tuesday's CDN 2001 solidified it in my mind.
In Web 1.0 we outsourced our web hosting. In Web 2.0 we're learning to outsource the delivery of our content to providers that can do so from the edge of the network. In Web 3.0, we're going to outsource the application and move it to the edge of the network as well. Today, e-commerce applications are distributed to three locations: static content is delivered from the edge of the network, the application runs on origin servers located at a hosting service, and the back-end systems are run by our IT departments. But in the future, that middle component will disappear. We'll have CDNs and the back-end systems, but no centralized origin server. And no web-hosting services.
In addition to content delivery (already at the edge), all session-management functions including shopping cart status, personalization, customization and localization will become edge services. The web server already lives at the edge in Web 2.0. In the next generation, the application server will live there, too. The only components of e-commerce applications that won't live at the edge will be transactions such as inventory queries and order add/delete/updates. These will be sent (using SOAP) from the edge back to our in-house systems, where transactional services based on .Net or EJBs will process the SOAP requests. The role of the IT organization of the future will merely be to provide SOAP-based services to its company's outsourced e-commerce application.
The CDN of the future will include much of what ASPs tried to deliver but failed. The reason the ASPs failed (or are still in the process of failing) is that they merely took on the management of standard application packages. They took on the 80% of e-commerce that's easy. The in-house IT team still had to deal with the legacy integration issues. In Web 3.0, the Web services an IT department supplies for its outsourced e-commerce application will be identical to those it supplies for in-house applications. No extra effort will be required. The Web 3.0 CDN will also be an ASP, but it will run the application at the edge, not at a centralized origin site. "[Blogarithms] - We should save predictions like this later and check them out in the future, say five years from now!
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