Thursday, July 18, 2002



Apple software allows multiple, simultaneous syncs [IDG InfoWorld]
11:13:51 PM    comment   



Microsoft Sales Higher at $7.25 Billion. Microsoft reported a rise in quarterly net profit on Thursday, helped by corporate demand for its enterprise products. By Reuters. [New York Times: Technology]
11:10:25 PM    comment   



Blackstone Amasses a Record Equity Fund. The Blackstone Group announced yesterday that it had raised $6.45 billion for its latest private investment fund the largest private equity fund ever raised. [New York Times: Business]
4:41:30 PM    comment   



Interesting note on John Robb's weblog about Alan Greenspan's number crunching that routes around the noise added by corrupt management. "We do have a set of profits data which, for all practical purposes, are free of spin," says the Federal Reserve chief. [Scripting News]
4:39:15 PM    comment   



NY Times: "The man who gave us 'irrational exuberance' is back, with a phrase that sums up the late 1990's even better than that one did." [Scripting News]
4:01:32 PM    comment   



Somehow the information technology industry, which is still riding Moore's curve, should be able to make some lemonade out of this. We're learning about the pitiful information technology at the SEC and the FBI. They desperately need the combo of weblogs and search engines. Their legacy systems are horribly out of date. Off to the glue factory. Meanwhile the general stagnation in the software industry, which is the core the western economy now, is a huge problem, and people aren't even talking about it. We're stuck behind a horribly inefficient system for trying out new ideas. A Hollywood movie gets much more funding than a breakthrough software idea. That seems out of whack to me. The venture capital industry doesn't get money into the hands of the unemployed technologists in Silicon Valley. We could do so much better than we are doing. There are so many people who now would appreciate a good job with a nice steady salary and a health plan. OK, the VCs don't want to make that kind of investment. Who does?? [Scripting News]
3:58:27 PM    comment   



A picture named greenspan.gifThoughts about the stock market. I rarely make predictions, at least in public. Last November I had all my liquid assets in stocks, and I sold them, turning them into cash, in US dollars, locking in some substantial losses. At first, it was not a good decision, but in the last few weeks I've come to appreciate it. I saved a lot of money. Today I had a flash that the market is at or near its bottom now. I don't think it's going to go up very quickly, but I think the precipitous fall is over. We've factored in the lack of trust of management of companies. Greenspan's comments, referenced <a href="#When:9:23:36AM">below, really made a difference to me. From this point we'll get much better information about how the companies are doing. Stock options are over. Salaries and benefits matter. Transparent management. Time to ride the Cluetrain, for real. Companies that make identifiable products for real people that they communicate with. And responsibility among shareholders and customers and journalists, as well. [Scripting News]
3:56:54 PM    comment   



Business Week.  Accelerating mutual fund redemptions shows that we have finally reached the classic bear market capitulation phase.  Another couple months of this and we could finally see a bottom in the market.  Excellent time to start getting funds together to begin investing again (if you have a strong stomach and expect cooler heads to prevail in the current accounting crisis -- if not, stay out!). [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
3:56:15 PM    comment   



The Loebner Prize for the first system to pass the Turing test. [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
3:51:33 PM    comment   



I have been listening to the books on tape set of Peter Drucker (Management challenges of the 21st Century).  He's absolutely brilliant and a must read/listen if you want to get real perspective on business issues.  He posited an interesting thought:  technology kingpins like Gates and Ellison are destined for the scrap heap as the technology they represent becomes commoditized and fades into the background.  The new kingpins:  those CEOs that apply the new technology better than their competitors.  His example of a similar process of evolution was the barons of the printing press.  I agree to an extent.  The difference is that technologies are moving quickly to combine (combinatorial technology is a huge opportunity space) and there are more than a few exponential acceleration curves at work in info-tech.  I wish it was true, so we could get rid of magazine covers like this:

This Week's Issue  Doesn't he look like Mussolini?     (I couldn't resist). [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
3:48:34 PM    comment   




Human Rights.

Miguel is talking about human rights, and mentions Palladium as being an example of governments not working on behalf of the people.  First, Palladium is attempting to be a market solution to issues (privacy and intellectual property) that would otherwise be solved through more government regulations.  Second, the universal declaration on human rights, which Miguel urges us to read, clearly says that all human beings have "the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author."  That sure sounds like intellectual property to me, and not the sort of "copyleft" envisioned by GPL.

I have to admit, though, I can't quite understand the meaning of the right described as "Everyone has duties to the community in which alone the free and full development of his personality is possible."  It sounds like a duty, and a threat ("you'll lose your personality unless you perform your duty to community"?), but not a "right".  I prefer the American "Bill of Rights" any day.

[Better Living Through Software]
3:48:09 PM    comment   



Groove and .NET.

Via Dave Winer, it looks like Sam Gentile has been working on Visual Studio .NET extensions for Groove.  I've done a lot of work using VSIP, so I can appreciate what a chore it is to get managed code extensions to interact through the legacy ATL interfaces to VS.NET.  I am always amazed when our devs can get it to work, so it's really cool to see Sam and his friends get it working.  I haven't seen the Groove integration, but it sounds like it is going to be really awesome -- exactly the sort of thing the VSIP people are hoping people will build.

Also nice to hear good things about System.Xml; it's going to get even better in the next version.

[Better Living Through Software]
3:34:41 PM    comment   



Corporate (with a sneer).

Dave is noticing that politicians this year are attempting to tap into the collective discontent left behind by the bubble's burst.  I saw the article he links on the front page of Sunday's New York Times, running right beside an article about candidates trying to smear one another with insinuations of corporate ties.  The NYT article reveals that the largest growth in the work force right now is from people of retirement age.  The article tells the story of a sympathetic couple, who sank all of their retirement savings into stocks at the peak of the bubble and are now surprised to see it gone.  No matter that people like Warren Buffet and Alan Greenspan (and even me) were warning everyone that the market was irrational -- when thousands of baby boomers blow their retirements, personal responsibility is the last thing anyone wants to talk about.  And to be honest, I think that the people typified by the NYT article are doing remarkably well at accepting their part of the blame, and it's only the politicians who want to make it seem like somebody else's fault.  ABC today is reporting that teens can't find jobs, no doubt a bit surprised to find themselves competing with their grandparents for entry-level jobs.  Teens don't vote, though, so that won't be a political issue.

The real political issue is about reality being less appealing than illusion.  The typical heart-jerking story is about someone who had a bunch of money, and now the money is gone.  The part the stories always leave out is that the money never existed.  The person just had the promise of money.  Even in the case of NYT's sympathetic couple, who had a significant amount of cash at one point, and then invested it, were living on imaginary projected retirement.  The only way to claim that the money was real would be to play a "what if" game and say "they would have had the money if thy hadn't invested it..."  ABC news continues to propagate this confusion in their article about how the government cooks the books.  The article tries to draw a parallel between the corporate scandals and the Bush tax cut by portraying the tax cut as a "hidden debt" that Bush needs to use creative accounting to hide.  Tax cuts are great fun, because the politicians always calculate their cost against completely imaginary things like "the surplus" and "social security fund".  The best part about "surplus" and "social security" is that the press never have to say "hypothetical" in front, since everyone knows that they are hypothetical, and only pretends that they don't when it comes time to campaign.

When the Pringles took their retirement money and decided to invest in stocks, I am certain that they had this discussion.  They undoubtedly knew that the stock market could be risky, and knew that there were safer alternatives.  They couldn't have forseen the magnitude of the impact of lying CFOs, uninterested SEC, and sleeping press.  But at the end of the day, they made the decision to put their retirement at risk.  They can share the blame with the other culpable parties, but so far it seems that most people are reject the blanket abdication of responsibility being offered by the politicians.

The pols will keep trying, though.  Sunday's NYT was gratifying, in a way, since it was such a strong evidence that I was right when I predicted six months ago:

"This year, the opressor is not "white anglo male protestants", "white racism", "bigotry", "polluters", or "big government". This year, the opressor is "corporations" and, by association, "the rich". As the newly conservative establishment focuses on fighting shadow wars with such "enemies" as militant homosexuals, moral-sapping communist professors and the like, they seem to be missing the real offensive being mounted by the underdogs. Two years ago, everyone was rich and powerful, living in a fantasy world called "the largest legal creation of wealth in the history of mankind." Joe Day Trader wasn't envious of "the rich", because he was "the rich". Now fast-forward to fall of 2001, when everyone is deep in the "down" period that comes after a wild high. Everyone is wanting "just one more fix to make the pain go away, bring back our bubble!" But instead of another fix of market bull, they get an in-your-face demonstration that America is not secure, and then they get laid off from their jobs. This is the shape of mass discontent and disillusionment, and these times are a bonanza for divisive politics. It's no longer the minority who are disaffected; it's a freekin' majority!"

Wealth Bondage has plenty to say about corporate malfeasance.  You've got to admire the use of rhetoric in this little snip:

"The Free Market? In 20 years it will be 8 guys playing poker for trillions outside the Bank of Bermuda. They will use Fortune 100 Companies for table stakes and Politicians as Waiters. The public, employed mostly as Mules, will watch on TV, identify with the Winners, and thank God that they are Free."

[Better Living Through Software]
3:33:38 PM    comment   



Apple Unveils iPod Music Players for Windows PCs. Steve Jobs said Apple will expand the audience for its popular iPod music player with new versions of the device designed to work with Windows-based personal computers. By Reuters. [New York Times: Technology]
3:25:53 PM    comment   



Forbes.   >>>After grueling years of secret development and false starts, Japanese scientists stared nervously earlier this month at a prototype of what they believe is the future of air travel. An unmanned javelin-shaped aircraft, piggybacked on a booster rocket, sat on the launch pad in the Australian desert. A few seconds later, it would fire about 300 feet into the sky, detach prematurely from its booster and crash to the ground, leaving a plume of smoke, $8 million worth of debris--and severely shaken dreams. <<<
[John Robb's Radio Weblog]
3:22:27 PM    comment   



Jon Udell: Forgotten software, space junk. [Scripting News]
2:48:44 PM    comment   



India's Cell-Phone Fight Heats Up. India’s telecom companies fight for turf as the difference between mobile and fixed-line services gets blurred. The courts will soon decide the winner. Ashutosh Sinha reports from New Delhi. [Wired News]
2:43:56 PM    comment   



Deloitte Consulting rebrands as mineral water. All hail Braxton! [The Register]
2:30:17 PM    comment