Mobilog

Sunday, November 16, 2003

NY Times magazine on home automation. This week's New York Times Magazine has a whole slew of great articles by James Gleick, Paul Boutin, Cory Doctorow, and others about the networked digital home. All of the pieces are available online, but this is one of those all-too-frequent weeks when picking up the Sunday Times is truly mandatory. Read... [Gizmodo]
9:31:06 PM

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Intel unveils 2.5GHz Mobile Celeron. Last P4-based value mobile chip [The Register]
9:30:48 PM

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CIOs outline savings found by squeezing IT budgets. Taking a hard look at 'fixed" costs can lead to savings, executives said at a symposium this week. [Computerworld News]
9:26:45 PM

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Telepocalypse Nails It x 2. Martin Geddes, who works for an unnamed big telco, has a fabulous blog called Telepocalypse that I've linked to a few times already. Two of his posts last week deserve broader distribution.

One gives the best explanation for something I've only had an incohate conviction about: the importance of ENUM to the future evolution of the convergence of telecom and the Internet.

The other post gives a numerical illustration of another point I've been making for a while: the yawning revenue gap between the current voice-dominated industry of circuit-switched telephony, and the future converged industry of packet data. As Martin recognizes, the numbers don't add up.
[Werblog]
9:21:59 PM

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Number portability and the telco death spiral. The FCC's decision to require local number portability between wired and wireless phones by November 24 could have a mjaor impact on the telecom industry. According to the New York Times:

"Industry analysts estimate that 3 percent to 7 percent of telephone users - or 4.5 million to 10.5 million people - no longer have traditional land-line phones and rely on cellphone services exclusively. As many as 15 percent of mobile phone users said they would consider abandoning their traditional phone service and moving to exclusively mobile service, according to a survey taken last spring by the Yankee Group, a market research firm."

If 15% of customers really do turn off their landline phone service in the next few years, the impact on the local exchange carriers would be dramatic. Back of the envelope numbers:

15% of 150 million US wireless subscribers = 22.5 milion customers switching.
Assume an average residential phone bill of $20/month, or $240/year.
That's $5.4 billion in annual revenue the Bells would lose.

$5.4 billion is a big number. And it might be a serious understatement, because those most likely to switch are the most active customers, who buy the extremely high-margin value-added services like voicemail and caller ID. When all's said and done, the local telcos could be looking at a $10 billion revenue hit, targeted at their most profitable offerings.

And we're not even talking about VOIP yet.

I have to say, Verizon's decision to brand both its wireliness and wireline businesses under the same name is looking very wise right now.
[Werblog]
9:21:40 PM

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WiFi and the Web. Intel's Sean Maloney compares WiFi to the Web:

The first time I saw a browser was 1992. It was like science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke's line, "Any good technology is indistinguishable from magic."

You get the same feeling when you first use broadband wireless. Sitting in San Francisco International Airport, watching rugby on my notebook computer and synchronizing my Intel Outlook e-mail at warp speed is a magical experience. I used to spend an hour and a half or two hours a day futzing around, synchronizing my e-mail, as do so many road warriors. Now (snaps his fingers), it happens like that. It's magical.

The era now does have analogies to 1994. You know that there is too much hype. On the other hand, you know that it is going to change everything.

Exactly right. The irrational exuberance is there, and the uncertainty about where the killer apps will emerge, but underneath is something real and lasting.

[Werblog]
9:20:52 PM

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