Monday, October 30, 2006

Iraq Juan Cole: "I don't take any pleasure in having been right about Iraq when they were wrong, or that they are they now are admitting it. I wish we could have avoided so much bloodshed and horror in Iraq, for our own troops and for the Iraqis. But I knew they weren't right, three years ago. I wish the Bush administration had paid more attention to the costs of the war it planned in 2002, costs that I foresaw." "2008 pres" 8:56:58 PM

Ascendancy of the center? Bull Moose: "The Moose luxuriates in the ascendancy of the center. Election day could be a very, very important milestone for the insurgent middle of the American body politic. That is because it is very likely that a whole new group of Blue Dogs and New Dems will be coming to Congress." Bull Moose: "The Moose wonders whether there is a special unit in the GOP to smear Vietnam Veterans." "2008 pres" 8:37:28 PM

Hunter for president? Josh Marshall: "Finally. Some comic relief. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president. Possible slogans: I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too." "2008 pres" 8:35:41 PM

Amendment 39 and Referendum J Andrew Oh-Willeke (via Colorado Confidential) details the impact Amendment 39 on school districts across the state. From the article, "Amendment 39, which imposes arbitrary limits on what percentage of its budget school boards can spend on certain items, is one of the most disruptive fiscal measures to face voters in recent memory. It is far more disruptive, for example, than the TABOR amendment which used the status quo as a baseline. If passed, all but 11 of the 178 school districts in the state will have to slash spending on support staff. The school districts not impacted are small, so more than 95% of students will be affected. It is heading to passage by a 43-37 margin according to Denver Post-Mason Dixon poll taken less than two weeks before election day. A Rocky Mountain News poll in early September had shown the measure with 58-25 support, so its net support has dropped from 33 percentage points to 6, with many more voters now undecided. But, Amendment 39 still has enough support to leave school board members across the state biting their nails. Every newspaper in the state that has gone on record on Amendment 39 opposes it." "In contrast, Referendum J, proposed by the legislature as an alternative to Amendment 39, which follows essentially the same structure as Amendment 39, but defines the expenses classified as instructional for budget purposes, would require reallocations in only three of the 178 school districts in the State. Those three district would have to reallocate a little more than a million dollars." "denver 2006" 6:06:37 PM

AP/AOL poll: "The number of people who go online for political news is rising, with more than one-third saying they check the Internet for such information. This group is more likely to be younger, better educated and male than the population in general, an Associated Press-AOL News poll found. While 35 percent say they check the Internet for political updates about campaigns and candidates, that number grows to 43 percent of likely voters and they tend to be more liberal than conservative. With the Nov. 7 elections nearing, the online audience is getting deluged with e-mail and election updates from news, campaign and political Web sites. People who use the Web point to the convenience, the variety of information and the range of intense emotion available online." "The poll found: four in 10 men search the Web for political news, compared with three in 10 women; about four in 10 of those under age 50 search the Web for political news, compared with fewer than two in 10 of those 65 and over; more than half of those with college degrees look to the Web for politics, compared with one-third of those who have some college, and fewer than one in six with a high school education or less." "2008 pres" 6:54:57 AM

Labuda or Rathburn for HD-1? Here's a short article about Aimee Rathburn from the Rocky Mountain News. She is running for the state House in district 1. From the article, "A Republican state House candidate is under fire for her record at the Colorado Capitol lobbying against stricter gun measures... "Rathburn faces Democrat Jeanne Labuda, of Denver. Their district includes southwest Denver and Sheridan. Rathburn was the executive director of the Colorado State Shooting Association when several gun measures related to the Columbine High School shootings were debated in the 2000 session. She opposed stricter controls, including criminal background checks at gun shows... "Rathburn said she opposed the bills because she believed they would drive gun sales underground. 'Democrats think I'm in favor of criminals getting guns,' she said. 'As the wife of a police officer, I'm the last person who would want a criminal with a gun.'" "denver 2006" 6:42:19 AM

Big Democratic gains next Tuesday? Well the election isn't over and Colorado Republicans are already trying to determine their strategy going forward, according to the Rocky Mountain News. From the article, "On this, many Republicans agree: Democrats in Colorado are poised to clean their clock on Election Day. But they disagree on what brought their party to this point. Some Colorado Republicans blame the conservative Christian wing of their party for nominating candidates whose strong social agendas turn off moderates in the general election. Others point to an unpopular president and an unpopular war and say the pendulum will swing back in Republicans' favor at some point. And still others say lame-duck Gov. Bill Owens shares some responsibility. Mike Beasley, a former lobbyist for the governor, counts himself as among those fed up with the most conservative wing of the party... "Brophy believes two problems are plaguing the party. 'We have sore losers who don't unite after the primary is over,' he said. 'And we have Republicans who don't know how to present Christian conservative philosophies without offending people.'" "denver 2006" 6:35:11 AM

Referendum I The Denver Post is urging voters to approve Referendum I on the fall ballot. From the editorial, "Referendum I doesn't allow "gay marriage," but it does stop the discriminatory treatment that same-sex couples now receive from their own state government. Ending such discrimination is the best way to forestall litigation that might lead to a court order requiring same-sex marriage in Colorado or any other state... "Because it is not marriage, Referendum I won't entitle same-sex couples to any of the more than 1,100 rights extended to married couples under federal law, such as Social Security survivors' benefits or the right to file joint tax returns. But Referendum I will end the bias now written into existing state law. For example, if a heterosexual worker is killed on the job, his or her spouse and any minor children are entitled to survivor's benefits. But surviving partners of gay workers and children who depend on the earnings of a non-custodial partner killed on the job are not entitled to a single dime of the benefits that their taxes help provide to heterosexual families. That just isn't fair. And it can't be corrected by any private action such as writing a will. This rank injustice can by reversed by litigation, as occurred in New Jersey, or we can do it the Colorado way, with voters endorsing a legislative remedy. That's Referendum I. It's the right thing to do and the right way to do it." "denver 2006" 6:27:17 AM

Nevada: Early western caucus The Los Angeles Times looks at Nevada and the state's new found national focus in determining the eventual Democratic nominee for president in 2008. From the article, "Iowa and New Hampshire, with their largely white, rural populations, don't represent the Democratic Party or the country any more, party leaders believe. Those states have played an outsized role in selecting the party's presidential nominees, some of whom went on to disastrous defeat in the general election. Party leaders sought an early caucus state that was Western and diverse, and the finalists were Arizona and Nevada. The Mountain West is all the rage in Democratic politics, and not without reason. As political scientist Thomas F. Schaller argued in his recent book, 'Whistling Past Dixie,' once the Democrats surrendered on gun control, they put the West back in play. There are fewer white evangelicals in the West than in the South, and traditional Western libertarians have rejected the Republican culture wars. With Republicans divided, Democrats such as Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer have captured the center. The West is also growing and changing rapidly with the influx of Mexican and other immigrants. Nevada's population, now at 2.4 million, has more than doubled since 1990 and is 20% larger than just five years ago. Latinos, Asians and African Americans make up 36% of the state's population, according to 2004 census figures. Democrats figure that if those voters aren't already voting Democratic, they hope to bring them into the fold quickly, assisted by Republican demagoguery on immigration issues. Although unions are on the wane nationally, they still have clout in the Democratic Party, and labor leaders were eager to see the caucus go to Nevada, where the labor movement is growing both in absolute numbers and in percentage of the working population. Membership in the Culinary Union, which represents workers in Las Vegas Strip casino hotels, has increased 20%, to 60,000, in the last year alone. Overall union membership in Nevada has grown from 12.5% of the working population in 2004 to 13.8% today." "2008 pres" 6:11:54 AM

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