Just read a report on Venezuela by a well-known US-based investment firm. Some of the things it says are interesting, but I knew them already, for example, that the opposition is losing momentum (hey, I predicted that in this blog!). Others are controversial, for example that Chávez has a good chance of winning the 2006, while he has support now, it's way too early to call. But the numbers did impress me: 33% pro-Chávez, 25% pro-opposition, 43% ni-ni's (neither one nor the other!). My group is winning! Far out! Of course, this is not good news, we have to wait until a new opposition (this time with leaders, please) wins the hearts and minds of that group (without losing the pro-opp group) in order to see a real threat for the chavismo. Bold Prediction: Looking at Chávez history is pretty obvious this new opposition will come from his own camp...

The report also states clearly that there is little chance of a recall vote against Chávez. The most probable scenario is that the Electoral body will ask people to go and corroborate that they signed, at that point the international observers will complaint and leave the country. And that, my friends, is the reason why Chávez has attacked them and the US (well, mostly Bush) in his recent speeches.

I thought the right strategy for Chávez was to have the electoral council disqualified half and the Supreme Court the other half in such a way that the two halves add up to enough signatures to deny the petition. That way no single body is guilty... But what do I know?

7:02:44 PM  What do you think? ( Thoughts) Who linked? []