Looking Forward : Technology that we may or may not see in the future. Some of it is my ideas and thoughts, some is that people are developing now, and all of it is filtered through my perspective as to what could be done.
Updated: 2/14/2003; 7:10:36 PM.

 

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Tuesday, July 09, 2002



CNet.   China to become manufacturing powerhouse.  They are welcome to it.  Why?  Manufacturing is rapidly declining.  Both the number of people necessary to do it and the percentage  of personal income devoted to manufactured items is falling.  This is very much like what occured in agriculture.  Today only 2% of the population in the US is in agriculture (much less than Europe -- 7% -- and Japan -- 15% -- but that is due to protected inefficiencies).  Agriculture is also a commodity business, highly competitive, and mostly still family farms (90% plus of all farming output is still done by family farms and not agribusiness).   It's a 100 a week business for $50k a year.  Food is now a small portion of the budget of most homes.  Manufacturing is following a similar path.  [John Robb's Radio Weblog]

Well, when they have a large enough manufacturing base, as well as the tools to make cruise missiles (Thanks Bill!), mixed with the rumors that they are getting nuclear subs from the Russians, I start to worry. Plus they have been building dams for power generation, which they can in turn use to drive their manufacturing base. They have no shortage of able bodied young folks to fight for them, the only real problem they have is the logistics of feeding and transporting their soldiers.

Yes, I know full well how paranoid this all sounds, thank you, I've told it to myself many times over the years, and I really and truly hope that I'm wrong here.  But looking at the evidence, looking at past history of nations that build up their forces, I've got a very bad feeling about this.




comments   10:22:14 PM    

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