Jinn of Quality and Risk

He who examines the most general features of existence, must investigate also the principles of reasoning. For he who gets the best grasp of his respective subject will be most able to discuss its basic principles. So that he who gets the best grasp of existing things qua existing must be able to discuss the basic principles of all existence; and he is the philosopher. And the most certain principle of all is that about which it is impossible to be mistaken... It is clear, then, that such a principle is the most certain of all and we can state it thus: It is impossible for the same thing at the same time to belong and not belong to the same thing at the same time and in the same respect.
— Aristotle, Metaphysics, 1005b12-20
Formulation for the Law of Non-contradiction
[Aristotle and Aristotelianism] 

In this picture, a man displays a cocoa bean at a plantation in Agbaou, Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer, and (according to Reuters) expecting a bumper crop this year. I recently discussed cocoa supply and demand. At $1700-1800/tonne, current prices are in the middle of the $1200-2400 range observed in the last 30 years. Neither way up nor way down.