Wednesday, March 19, 2003
Read John Robb on the future of the Bush doctrine.
The impact of this unravelling of the Bush doctrine will be a disaster for the US. Here is how it will likely play out:
I'm very much afraid John spells out a clear vision of how things will eventually turn out.
I would rewrite the final outcome in a slightly less dramatic, though possibly even darker way.
The new administration will find that it is now caught in a ME quagmire with few friends and several aggressive foes. The new administration will slowly attempt to unwind the situation by pulling out US troops and support for the new Iraq... Iran and N. Korea, effectively inoculated against US attack will continue to develop nuclear weapons with impunity.
Without US support - remember Saigon 75 - the new regime in Iraq collapses, the country effectively splits into 3 more or less rival regions. In the north, Kurds become entangled in a struggle for survival with Turkey, bringing that country close to civil war.
Religious fanatics, either associates or rivals of Osama Bin Laden's group, capitalize on the disintegration of statehood and rejection of the West's violence, seize power in former Iraq, destabilize the weak and/or corrupt regimes in the neighboring countries, and finally reach their goal of establishing 'religiously pure' regimes in the Middle East, from Istanbul to Cairo. Thousands die in the turmoil. Millions must now face a daily life ruled by religious fanatics, who make Iranian priests sound like benign moderates.
The new 'axis of purity' countries try to stabilize their international situation by developping a coordinated program of nuclear weapons production - pursuing security through deterrence (hardly a new concept) - while trying to put a lid on Middle-Eastern inspired terrorism now that their wildest dreams of power are finally achieved with the help of the former Bush administration.
Meanwhile, in the US and the rest of the 'Western' world, we try to face the end of our oil based economies on the worse possible terms, while struggling with a huge wave of emigration from refugees out of the ME who are trying to escape to 'freedom'.
In the event our societies do not plain implode and disintegrate when confronted with the sudden general increase of poverty, it may take over 20 years to bring prosperity back to its current standards.
What can we do ? We've been tricked by successful terrorists into starting a preventive war - it's too late to stop it now.
We'll have to bear the moral responsability and live through the very real and harsh consequences.
We can make sure we vote this failed administration out of office come 2004 while we are still enjoying the luxuries of a democratic society - an attribute of wealth btw, but by then it won't be enough.
I'm not sure right now what specific actions we should take in the near future, but there's one thing I know: this administration's failure is our failure to envision ourselves as part of one world.
We can no longer enjoy our wealth by plundering other people's resources (or buying them from mafias, which amounts to the same thing).
Iraqis - Sauds - Foreigners are our neighbours. Living in an enpoverished neighborhood is both an unsavory experience and a risky proposition. And there's nowhere else we can move.
Dive into John Robb's weblog.
9:38:56 AM - See Also: Iraq
