Thinking of the Future

Hamas and Hizbullah must go. And so must the Israeli settlements. There doesn't seem to be any other way. These are the current impediments that make peace in the Middle East an absolute impossibility.

And if these impediments do not go, if they remain and the festering wound of violence and hatred and killing and misery continue to spiral unchecked, what follows in the next twenty years will make the coming war in Iraq look like a walk in the park.

And the war is what is on everybody's mind.

Sadly, its unfashionable to think of the future these days. Who can afford to worry about twenty years from now? What a futile academic exercise! Certainly the rabid hawks and the whining doves can't be bothered to think of such things. They have speeches to give and protests to attend.

Kevin Drum of CalPundit[1], (linked by Brad DeLong of Semi-Daily Journal[2]) poses some questions for both sides:

I think there's a bipartisan consensus that there are several other outcomes we would also like to see [...]

• Introduction [...] of democratic institutions in Iraq.
• Rapid reconstruction of Iraqi infrastructure and introduction of market reforms, food aid, and medical aid.
• A clear demonstration [...] that Iraq did indeed have [...] WMDs
• Continued protection of the Kurds and other [...] minorities
• [...] evidence that Western values [...] are starting to make inroads in the rest of the Middle East.

And then there are the possible disasters that a war might bring:

• A serious uprising [...] promoting increased terrorist activity.
• Additional wars in the Middle East [...]
• Pursuit of WMDs by countries like Iran or Syria [...]
• A serious attack, possibly nuclear, on Israel.
• An interruption of the Mideast oil supply [...] that causes a serious recession in the rest of the world.

So [...] if you're in favor of war, is anything more than regime change needed for you to consider it a success? And would any of the disasters on the bottom list convince you that it was, in the end, a failure?

For anti-war partisans, the question is the opposite. How many of the items on the top list would have to happen to convince you that the war, in fact, turned out to be a positive development?

Thinking about these issues requires a willingness to look down the road a bit. I see no evidence that either the hawks or the doves are interested of that. After all, they have speeches to give and protests to attend.

[1] http://calpundit.blogspot.com/2003_02_16_calpundit_archive.html#89410243

[2] http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/000383.html

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