Gartner is coming back with a new series of predictions about emerging IT technologies. (For previous predictions, check "Human-Computer Interfaces From 2003 to 2012.") Here is the introduction.
Despite the IT industry being faced with constant and rapid adoption of new technology, fundamental shifts of focus in IT move at a much slower pace. Many of the shifts do not achieve their full potential until the next major advance comes along. For example, PCs revolutionized access to computing power, compared with earlier mainframes, but the impact of creating departmental or personal spreadsheets was far less than the impact of connecting PCs to each other and to the Web. Through 2010, the emphasis on physical connectivity will continue as the wired world gives way to a predominantly wireless one through 2007 to 2010.
The current era of physical connectivity is being augmented by a growing focus on logical connectivity—for example, through application integration, service-oriented architectures, and semantic standards. From around 2010, the potential of smart, embedded computing power in everyday objects and places will become another major focus area.
Gartner has identified seven key technologies "that will be drivers of change." Let's focus on hardware and platform technologies. Here are Gartner's predictions.
- Wireless networks will drive platform evolution. The combination of broadband access and wireless LANs in the home will create a renewed focus on alternate form factors, such as tablets, suitable for a range of access needs and locations.
- Networked chips will be embedded in everyday objects. The cost of RFID (radio frequency identification) and other tagging technology will be reduced dramatically during the next decade, leading to new cost efficiencies in tagging even low-value items. Placing communications capabilities directly on the chip will enhance communications among items, people, and remote systems.
- Microelectromechanical systems (MEMSs) will add perception and control to chips. MEMSs will add low-cost sensing and mechanical response at the chip level.
- Alternate power sources will be commercialized for mobile devices. Alternate power sources, such as fuel cells, will have the potential to provide long-lasting power without the need to connect to an electrical socket to recharge.
- Pen and paper will join the digital world. Digital ink, embedded power sources and chips, and inexpensive wireless communications will bring traditional paper and pens into the digital world.
Gartner also looks at human-computer interactions, applications integration, nalytics, and more. For additional predictions, please read the article. We'll check in ten years to see how Gartner fared with these forecasts.
Source: Gartner, for ZDNet Tech Update, February 11, 2003
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