In this article, Nicholas Petreley looks at how and why Linux and Windows market shares are commonly misreported. Here is his summary.
There are dozens of reasons why people have underestimated how quickly Linux has been grabbing Windows' market share. Windows starts out with a false boost and maintains its illusory market share even as it gets replaced by Linux. In 2004, don't be surprised when Linux overtakes Windows to become the main focus for developers.
Petreley was hired by Evans Data Corporation (EDC) to help them with a research report focused on Linux developers. His first conclusion is that "the axiom that Linux is taking more market share from Unix than from Windows" is completely wrong.
Of the developers surveyed, more than 50 percent who now develop primarily for Linux used to develop primarily for Windows. Only 30 percent used to develop for some other Unix or Unix derivative. In case you missed it, the operative phrase is "used to." In other words, this is not a prediction of an emerging trend. It is cold, hard information about what has already transpired, and it withstands the scrutiny of a jeweler's eyepiece.
Here is a page extracted from the "Linux Development Survey, Volume 1, 2003" report published by EDC, "Primary OS Prior to Mainly Targeting Linux OS" which illustrates Petreley's comments. Check also this "How Important Are 64-Bit Architectures?" page from the same report.
Petreley then checks all the "reasons why people have underestimated how quickly Linux has been grabbing Windows' market share" and answers some questions you might have.
Are people really installing Linux in a way that is difficult to estimate from downloads and sales? The answer is a resounding yes.
If Red Hat is the most popular Linux, doesn't that mean we can get at least a rough idea of the starting point by counting Red Hat sales? The answer is a resounding no.
But are people really installing Linux over Windows? The answer is a resounding yes.
Please read this excellent article to discover the detailed answers.
Sources: Nicholas Petreley, LinuxWorld, March 14, 2003; Evans Data Corporation, 2003
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