Updated: 3/1/2003; 7:08:41 AM.
Mark Oeltjenbruns' Radio Weblog
The glass isn't half full or half empty, it's too big!
        

Saturday, February 08, 2003

Dollars, Euros and Oil. Excellent article by Ciln Nunan: "Oil, Currency and the War on Iraq". It seems to have disappeared from the site, so I'll include it at the bottom as well. Fascinating explanation of some major economic mechanisms involving dollars and euros and oil. A very big reason that the United States is such an economically and militarily dominating country is apparently that U.S. dollar is the de facto world reserve currency. Lots of things are counted in dollars and some goods are only sold for dolars. That means that foreign governments and corporations and banks are keeping large dollar reserves. That essentially amounts to a huge loan the rest of the world is giving to the United States, which will subsidize the U.S. economy. In order to acquire those dollars, the rest of the world has to provide goods and services for those dollars. That allows the U.S. to have a huge import/export imbalance. Last November, 48% more imports than exports. It would be untennable for any other country to run such a deficit.Next major point is that one of the reasons everybody has to have dollars is that the OPEC oil producting countries only accept dollars for oil. Well, not all of them. The only one that does something different is Iraq, which only accepts Euros for their oil, since 2000. And Iran is considering it as well. And the thing is that it might just as well be Euros that everybody used as a reserve currency. It would apparently be a better choice in many ways, because the European economies are more balanced, and the OPEC countries would end up getting more value for their oil. So, now, what would happen if Euros became the only choice for buying oil? Most likely the U.S. economy would plunge, because it would no longer be subsidized in that manner. And EU would probably be quite happy being subsidized in its place. Anybody thinks all this might have something to do with the great urgency to take over Iraq? And why would Britain support it? more > [Ming the Mechanic]
9:06:39 PM    comment []

British "intelligence" about Iraq plagiarized from the Interweb. Colin Powell, in his presentation to the UN Security Council, drew attention to "the fine paper that the United Kingdom distributed... which describes in exquisite detail Iraqi deception activities". Ten pages of that 19 pages report happen to be lifted from sources not referenced. Four pages are, to a large extent verbatim (including typographic errors), taken from a postgraduate student's publication in an internet-journal last September. Another six pages rely heavily on material published in Jane's Intelligence Review in 1997 and last November. Sources: Channel 4 The Guardian [kuro5hin.org]

 

Something about this whole Iraq war thing just isn't sitting right with me.  We will go to war with them, we are just trying to find a tipping point that will "force" our attack.


9:00:34 PM    comment []

Linux from a Browser.

Linux from a Browser

Thanks Dave.  Here's a way, WorkSpot, to run graphical linux (a Redhat Desktop) via a web browser using a Java applet.  Pretty cool.  And this feature is particularly cool:

One of greatest features of the Workspot service is the ability to make one desktop available to multiple users simultaenously, for collaboration over the web. The user that creates a desktop session sets up who has access to it, using the "Share the Desktop" function. [_Go_] [_More_]

I would comment that this isn't feature new at all -- I used, back in 97? 98? or so, a Java applet called Hipbone which let you share your desktop over the net with another user.

[The FuzzyBlog!]
11:01:18 AM    comment []

Microsoft is jealous (and scared of) of Slash Dot and Scripting News.

I'm hearing that more and more. Next week Microsoft is going to make a full-court-press on its community leaders (Microsoft calls them MVPs). The top three execs at Microsoft will be presenting to the MVPs and many of the Vice Presidents there will too (on Monday, 10 or so MVPs and me are having dinner with the VP of the Windows Networking division).

I was talking with someone who works closely with Microsoft on a variety of initiaties and he said "Microsoft wants to help webloggers and others build strong communities like Slashdot around their products."

OK, I've started a few communities around Microsoft products (Train Simulator, NetMeeting, and .NET) and I've noticed that Microsoft-centric communities aren't getting strong for a few reasons:

1) Who wants to make Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer richer without getting rich themselves? There is significant evidence that anyone who gets "too powerful" in the Microsoft space makes Microsoft uncomfortable. I know a few folks who started .NET FAQs and started becoming almost celebrities. Within a few months Microsoft had built the "GotDotNet" site and had copied the FAQ format. Certainly within Microsoft's right, but next time there's an opportunity to start a FAQ again, will these three people start it? No.

2) Microsoft ignores the grass roots (er, communities) role in creating PR. Last fall Steve Ballmer announced XDocs on stage at Comdex. All the world's press was there. You'd think that was a good PR strategy, right? Well, one problem. Most of the press likes to have quotes from people who don't work at Microsoft in their articles. Why? For two reasons: a) If they don't, they look like PR press releases and b) Maybe Microsoft didn't do a good job of explaining the technology (not to mention they won't point out real-world pros and cons). The problem was, none of the "Microsoft community" had been given advance warning of XDocs. So, when the press started calling through their rolodexes and visiting the usual Microsoft-centric weblogs (or even the usual "anti-Microsoft" places like Slashdot) they couldn't learn anything "sorry, I don't even know what you're talking about" was the answer I gave to one press flack." The press quickly wrote off XDocs and hasn't talked about them since (me neither, I still haven't been given a copy).

3) Microsoft wants to control its communities. Control? That's a loose word. But, lets visit MSN Groups, shall we? That's where a lot of Microsoft-centric communities are (that's where my Train Simulator and NetMeeting groups hang out). You can't control: a) What URL you'll get -- Google doesn't give high rankings to sites that share a common URL b) Your color scheme. c) Whether or not there are ads on your page (why, again, should we make Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer even richer when creating communities?). Add into that, anytime someone gets "too big" all of a sudden Microsoft starts their own community sites and controls traffic flow by only linking to the communities they want to support.

4) Care and feeding isn't there. Microsoft's employees aren't taught how to care and feed for communities (at least not holistically). Some groups do a great job (the PSS group that's working with the MVPs is getting better -- three years ago Microsoft tried to kill the MVP program because of legal fears). The games group does a decent job (but then, they know that what sells games is enthusiast involvement). How many times has Bill Gates, Ballmer, Allchin, or even someone one or two levels down from them, called up a weblogger and said "I'd like to give you an exclusive interview?" Not many. I just asked someone high-up on the Longhorn team for an interview, and he declined, saying "I can't talk until the NDAs end and the PR folks decide it's appropriate for me to talk to the world."

5) NDAs. NDAs are used like water in Microsoft land. In fact, I won't be weblogging at all next week because I've signed an NDA not to disclose anything that I learn at the summit. My wife, in fact, is going to need to sign an NDA before coming to dinner with me. Oh, and, at the executives presentations, there will be "professional" press in the room. They won't be NDA'd. Think that gives me the warm and willies about supporting Microsoft and starting communities?

6) We're not given a voice in future product planning. OK, this is a blanket statement, and clearly some outside partners (even some MVPs) are given a seat at the table, but generally this is an exception when it happens, and not a rule. If you want strong communities to build up around your products, you gotta give those communities a voice in what happens with the future of the product. For instance, the MVPs weren't warned that Visual Basic.NET would not work with Visual Basic 6.0 code. By the time the MVPs learned about that fact, it was too late to do anything. We weren't included in the design process and our concerns were not heard. If we are going to be "evangelists" well, then, we also need to be able to represent our customers, friends, and readers.

7) Microsoft doesn't get Weblogs. Look at Weblogs. Microsoft doesn't get them. Oh, sure, there are now, what, 30 Weblogs kept by Microsoft folks? But, name one top executive who has a weblog. Name a Microsoft-product weblog where we get to see a real insight into a product. Not to mention there's 55,000 employees at Microsoft and so far only 30 people have gotten brave enough (stupid enough?) to do weblogs. And, in one publicized incident, a Microsoft weblogger was parodied by the Register and quickly took her weblog down. Why did she take it down? Was she really embarrassed by it? Or, was she worried about losing her job? Why didn't her management force her to keep it up? Simple, if you work at a big company, you are very concerned about keeping your job and not getting on anyone's radar screen.

8) Microsoft's product pricing keeps its technology from getting used. For instance, Sharepoint. Sharepoint, if it were developed by someone else, would cost very little to try, and very little to implement. But, Microsoft is charging thousands of dollars for the server. Well, it might be worth that in the long run, but let me ask you how technology gets adopted inside corporations? I can tell you how it works at NEC: if I need to ask the IT department, I ain't gonna try unless there's an act of God already impelling me. Now, how will I get Sharepoint into NEC? Simple: I can't. It's too expensive. But, I'm already evangelizing Weblog technology. Why weblogs and not Sharepoint? Easy: price. I can put Weblogs into NEC for $40 at most and free at best. No need to try to talk my boss into spending thousands of dollars. No need to visit the IT department and ask them for a server and help. Now, what would happen if Microsoft gave away Sharepoint for a few years, then started charging $40 a user for it? Nah, wouldn't happen. Microsoft's employees don't like to work for free for a couple of years (even though Microsoft is sitting on billions of dollars of cash).

9) Microsoft is too big and its PR company is too powerful. You know, Microsoft does some cool things. Mostly at the edges. The new Tablet, for instance, has changed my life and is a great new product (much more innovative than the latest Macintosh Powerbooks, for instance). But, how many of you have had your hands on them? How many of you have read reviews pro/con? How many community sites are there for the Tablet (I only know of six, and none have had much Microsoft involvement)? Do they get any special advantages? (I can tell you, they don't get many). Why is this? Because Microsoft can only keep so many balls in the air at one time. Tablet's time was last November. Now their PR juggernaut has moved onto something else (watches, Office 11, Windows Server, new mice, and on and on). That's why I publicly advocate splitting Microsoft up. You'd unleash a torrent of innovation that already is there (Microsoft has innovative products, it's just that no one is hearing about them).

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how Ballmer, Gates, and Allchin come and try to get us MVPs to compete with the noise over on Slashdot. I hear they won't even have an open wireless network there, because they are scared of what the MVPs will write to the newsgroups and weblogs. Microsoft: get a clue! We'll support you. Just unleash us. Support us. And stop trying to control what the community says about your products.

[The Scobleizer Weblog]
6:30:47 AM    comment []

Annotating The Physical World. Got a view on the last film you saw or the last restaurant you ate in? Soon you may be able to post a review outside the front door using your mobile phone. There must have been times after having a particularly good, or bad, experience at a restaurant that you wanted to leave more than a tip and less than your comments spray painted across the walls of the establishment.

Just recommending it to your friends, or warning them to avoid it, may not feel like you are doing enough.

But soon you could get chance to do much more than just leave with your stomach full and your wallet slightly emptier.

Researchers around the world are working on ways to create mid-air messaging systems that let you post or read comments people have left tied to a particular location.

The "mid-air" messages will hang in the air until someone walks past carrying a device, a phone, handheld computer or laptop, capable of receiving them.

The idea is comments, dialogue or review can be tied to a shop, restaurant, exhibit in a museum or anything that can be identified.

Sailing enthusiasts could even use the mid-air messaging systems to warn fellow sailors about shifting sandbanks or other dangers.

[Smart Mobs]


6:30:24 AM    comment []

US DOD is now largest RFID user in the world. Savi helped the military build its Total Asset Visibility (TAV) network, which is the world's largest active RFID logistics tracking system. The military uses it to monitor and manage 270,000 cargo containers transporting military supplies throughout 400 locations in more than 40 countries. [Smart Mobs]
6:29:12 AM    comment []

Top 15 wireless companies: The 802.11 Report issued their top 15 "fiercest" wireless companies, and it's a good introduction to the major players in the business with capsule summaries.

[80211b News]
6:27:46 AM    comment []

Etherlinx unveils?: An alert reader noted that Etherlinx's site contains vastly more information than it did before -- not sure if this is a recent change, but a welcome one. Etherlinx made a splash last summer in the New York Times in an article discussing their low-cost, off-the-shelf-modified approach to providing cheap, non-line-of-sight point-to-point service using unlicensed spectrum. The products listed show a couple of examples of their approach, which combines some proprietary ideas with commodity hardware and mesh networking.

[80211b News]
6:26:20 AM    comment []

Congrats to Jon, he is now the proud owner of the best professional media weblog in the world.  He has every feature of a modern weblog and he is leveraging Google, building shared outlines (for both key topics and key people), sharing subscription lists to RSS feeds, and much more.  Excellent.   Talk about an information rich environment.  [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
6:15:02 AM    comment []

© Copyright 2003 Mark Oeltjenbruns.
 
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