Fears of the end of the world have been pervasive around me for my entire life. Not that I have given into those fears, but they have certainly been around me. The future potential causes of the end of the world are many; nuclear holocaust, global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, fossil fuel depletion, water shortages, crop fertilizer and pesticide runoff, faltering biodiversity due to species extinction, viral epidemics, bacterial immunity to antibiotics and, more recently, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

I sometimes wonder if this is a uniquely Western point of view or if fear about the end of the world is present in other cultures. Certainly Christianity, with its book of Revelations, is imbued with this fear at its center. Is the more mainstream fear of mass destruction simply an extension of Christian dogma?

Though the logic behind all of these problems is apparent, the facts are always less clear. Global warming, for instance, has always been surrounded by controversy within the scientific community. In the early days, it was largely rejected as alarmist environmentalist rhetoric, but has recently gained a lot of traction within the scientific community. Again, the logic is clear. We know that carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" have an insulating effect, allowing UV radiation to pass into the lower atmosphere, but blocking infrared radiation from escaping. We also know that human industry has caused the release of huge volumes of these gases. However, predicting how that will effect a decidedly chaotic and non-linear system like the global climate is foolish.

Unfortunately, most people and certainly most environmental zealots have little understanding of what it means to live in a chaotic world. They continue to apply simplistic, linear logic to the cause and effect relationship between man and the environment. This may give them a warm fuzzy and make them feel like they are saving the world, but their approach is fundamentally flawed. The truth is that we simply don't know how our behavior is affecting the environment.

There have been many theories arguing against the validity of global warming claims. For instance, one theory says that as the global temperature rises, melting polar ice caps, the sea levels will also rise. This would, in turn, raise the overall reflectivity of the ocean (due to increased surface area) causing less UV radiation to be absorbed and converted into infrared radiation, thus creating a natural temperature equilibrium.

Another theory suggests that as the ice caps melt, excessive amounts of fresh water introduced into the ocean would disrupt the Atlantic Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a natural heat conveyor moving warm water from the tropics to the northern hemisphere and there is extensive evidence that disruption of the Gulf Stream in the past has actually contributed to global cooling! So, a short term increase in global temperature could actually result in the triggering of an ice age.

Anyway, a recent study suggests that current increases in temperature is to be expected. It seems that the world has been in a mini ice age since around 1300 A.D. Prior to that time global temperatures where actually quite a bit higher than they are now.

According to Prof Stott, the evidence also undermines doom-laden predictions about the effect of higher global temperatures. "During the Medieval Warm Period, the world was warmer even than today, and history shows that it was a wonderful period of plenty for everyone."

In contrast, said Prof Stott, severe famines and economic collapse followed the onset of the Little Ice Age around 1300. He said: "When the temperature started to drop, harvests failed and England's vine industry died. It makes one wonder why there is so much fear of warmth" [Daily Telegraph][via MetaFilter].

It is certainly import for us human beings to try to understand our relationship to the world around us, but a little more prudence and a little less sensationalism would certainly help. I for one, doubt the claims of global warming adherents for many reasons not stated above. However, I don't deny the possibility either. What is important is that we find out the facts and them make appropriate decisions. 11:11:20 AM    comment []