On java.blogs I found Five Predictions for 2003.
While I agree with many points I especially like "Java client-side growth may end up being the big surprise".
While I don't know wether this is true for the PC platform. I see 2003 as the year the digital convergence really starts taking shape. And Java seemingly plays a significant role. This is mainly driven by 2 areas: the mobile sector and digital TV.
Java certainly is dominant on the mobile phone sector. Nokia, Motorola and Siemens all are betting on Java. Nokia's Series 60 platform is heavily dependent on Java and is already licenced by many of the big phone vendors.
With the majority of the new mobile phones being ready for HTTP and XHTML, they are eventually useful for surfing the Internet and one can get rid off this ugly WML. In adition MMS will certainly further push this movement and offer new opportunities for service providers.
BTW, Russell Beattie's weblog is always a good source of information about what's going on in the mobile world.
While MS is dominant on the PDA sector, it is more difficult for them to gain momentum. Mobile phones are more and more getting the same functionality and they are supported (and pushed) by the mobile network operators (you get a phone for free on a new contract etc.)
Although, despite the recent desaster with Sendo, MS will still try hard to enter this market. There is no doubt about it. And I guess none of the big phone vendors is really married with Java.
What drives the digital convergence even more IMHO is digital TV based on the DVB standard. Here in Europe DVB is heavily pushed by the big TV networks. With the introduction of MHP, which is based on Java, the applications for digital TV become portable between the different digital TV receivers. And guess who already is among the most innovative vendors for digital set top boxes. It's Nokia. They already integrated Bluetooth and a digital VCR.
This does not sound exciting compared to MS activities around Windows XP Media Center Edition.
But I for myself expect some real innovations as MHP is gaining momentum this year.
(The best off all this is, that Cocoon seems to be the ideal server-side plattform for many of
these new applications :-)
12:57:10 PM 
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