Lessons from Iowa

1-25-03

by Edward Cone
News & Record

One can make too much of the Iowa caucuses, which involve a small number of voters in an atypical state, and boast a spotty record of predicting eventual nominees. But there are still some important lessons to learn from last week’s caucus results, storylines to consider as we head into Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.

The Internet is overrated as a campaign tool. As with the tech bubble in the stock market, response to the success of online campaigning got overheated. Howard Dean’s prowess at raising money and organizing volunteers online made him a lock for the nomination, right? Surprise: the candidate still matters. Policies and presentation count. Television and other mass media remain important.

The Internet is an essential campaign tool. As with the stock market bubble, the value of the underlying technology doesn’t go away when the hype is exposed. Dean’s showing was disappointing in view of recent expectations, but don’t forget where he was a year ago: nowhere. His pioneering use of the Internet as a cheap, ubiquitous organizing tool, and as a communications platform for an entire campaign, will be the model for elections to come. Count on many in the mainstream media to sigh with (unmerited) relief that this experiment is over. Count on candidates to keep pushing forward with online tools. That includes John Edwards, who has been building and rebuilding his online presence in the shadow of Dean’s Internet campaign, and now looks ready to support a major volunteer campaign of his own.

John Edwards has some grit. It’s not surprising if you’ve followed his career, but he had looked a little soft in the national spotlight. (This column has been begging him to show his toughness since last summer.) But his ability to stay optimistic and forward-looking while the poll numbers were low, to talk about education and healthcare when almost nobody was listening, and to avoid attacking his rivals when many would have gone negative, showed Iowa and the rest of the country that our senior Senator shouldn’t be underestimated.

When there’s a monster in the closet, call a grownup. John Kerry is a war hero, serious and mature and knowledgeable. That makes him appealing in parlous times, and voters in Iowa seemed to think it gives him a better chance than his less experienced rivals against George Bush in November.

You need more than anti-war. Dean has actually said a lot beyond his anti-war stuff, but he seemed pigeon-holed by that image, just as he was stuck with an ultraliberal label that his record as Governor of Vermont doesn’t support. It may be that his message was drowned out by shriller voices in his own campaign – including supporters on his weblog. Bush’s hype-job of the Iraqi threat is still red meat to many voters, and certainly questions about his credibility and about the administration of post-war Iraq will be campaign issues. But people want to focus on what comes next.

Reading trends is easier  than they predicting results. The Kerry surge, the Edwards uptick, the Dean downturn – all were identified correctly by pollsters in the run-up to the caucuses. But the widely-predicted  four-way donnybrook (remember Dick Gephardt?) never materialized.

Endorsements are for basketball players. Dean had the support of Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Gephardt had the union label. Voters were not impressed by the company the candidates were keeping. Unless Nike is paying you a few million, endorsement deals don’t seem that valuable.

Super Bowl teams have coattails. Was it a coincidence that John Kerry of Massachusetts and North Carolina’s own John Edwards advanced in the playoffs, er, primaries, just one day after teams from their respective states advanced to the Super Bowl? Well, yes, it was just a coincidence. And we certainly don’t want that 36-32 victory margin to stack up in the same way. But still. Go Panthers.