Big piece in National Geographic, complete with cool maps
and serious challenges:
When will the peak hit? Depends on
who you ask. David Greene of Oak Ridge National Laboratory analyzed oil
production rates based on a variety of supply estimates. His
interpretation of data from U.K.-based Colin Campbell offers a grim
picture: World production will most likely peak about 2016, and outside
the Middle East around 2006. Using data from the U.S. Geological
Survey, Greene presents a brighter picture, with world production most
likely to peak around 2040. Greene notes, however, that his study has a
built-in optimism, since it doesn't factor in political or
environmental constraints on production. Some experts, in fact, think
the peak is already here. The timing rests largely on the actions of
Middle East producers and on moves to conserve and to develop
unconventional sources. Either way, time is short.
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