Thursday, March 24, 2005

Green Guerillas? John Robb is not a proponent of terrorism and guerilla warfare, but he is an astute analyst of it. Neither the White House nor the anti-Iraq War folks are paying him enough attention, IMHO. Here's what he said recently about potential vulnerabilities of our current energy systems: [Global Guerillas]: A central theme of global guerrilla warfare is that the centralized systems we rely upon in modern nation-states are unable to withstand even a rudimentary low tech assault.  The environmental movement picked up on this vulnerability for their own purposes.  Their message:  clean energy is more secure energy.  This is accurate.  Clean energy requires decentralized production and is by its nature more secure.... Eco-terrorism isn't new.  It is, however, typically ineffective.  This report [Cascadia Scorecard] points to another potential scenario.  If eco-activists adopt global guerrilla tactics, they could coerce a rapid move to clean energy alternatives.  Small but extremely effective (high ROI) attacks on the energy corridors leading to target regions, would quickly increase the costs of conventional energy such that clean power alternatives would become extremely attractive.  This would be dictated by a direct economic comparison (costs) as well as indirect factors such as reliability of delivery.  This systems sabotage tax would induce a tipping point in energy market equilibria towards green alternatives if it is extended over a long period (longer than one season) and is of a sufficient level.  See the brief Urban Takedowns for more on how a terrorism tax can impact market equilibria. 11:37:38 AM    comment []  trackback []