Princeton Unversity Press. "Hubbert's Peak." Very interesting.
In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert--then working at the Shell research lab in Houston--predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1971. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak--a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.
Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Deffeyes finds that a peak in world oil production is less than five years away. And he argues that new exploration and production technologies can't save us. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade short-term catastrophe.
From what I understand, the Hubbert models are based on the concept that once you find the major fields and pump the easily retrievable oil out, it becomes progressively more difficult to pump more (no matter what technology you use). So, there is a run up in production during the field discovery phase as new sources are quickly found and during a short follow-on period as the easily retrievable oil is rapidly extracted. Soon after the pace of those "easy" discoveries begin to slow, production retreats. He predicts that the global tipping point for this will be in 2003.
I suspect Hubbert had more than enough data in 1956 to make his original prediction for the US. We likely have enough data on global oil production now to expand the analysis (given that we have already consumed over 900 b barrels since the start of the industry -- about 2/5ths of proven reserves). If the Hubbert analysis is correct, it implies a vice-like framework that the direction of our foreign/defense policy over the next twenty years.
Even though per capita oil consumption has remained relatively constant, global population growth (which isn't projected to peak until 2050) and political turmoil in producing states could quickly put us into $50 a barrel territory (or much more). US policy may well end up being exclusively devoted to keeping producing states in line. This book looks worth the read. [John Robb's Radio Weblog]
11:47:44 AM 
|
