Today reading Ross Mayfield's page, I saw an formula that suggested the additive value of social network value calculations.

Reeds law and Metcalf's (groups and links value)  were added to straight numbers of nodes.  N+ N^2+ 2^N, or maybe picking between the last two.  But I think this is fundamentally wrong.

My intuition suggests that the power law value calculations are potential network valuations.  The potential number of links or the potential number of groups...  So the bigger the N, this potential value grows exponentially!  But then you have the constraint of reality.  How many groups can you belong to?  How many links can you actively maintain?  This number is lower.  In fact it is dramatically lower.

So how do you determine network value?  I think it may vacillate.  Since it is perceived, and people focus on the potential and then on the reality of their networks, and back again, the value goes up and down.

There may be a real value - perhaps black and shoales option pricing formula could be useful...  Some measure of network volatility would determine value.  How big are these swings, or how often do the nodes change.

This could be a fascinating value proposition for the Blogshares market concept.  Here we have a system (according to my cursory and limited understanding) that is trying to determine a value based on inbound and outbound links.  But in fact these links are more representative of potential to the blog's user.  If the links (particularly outgoing) are well organized, then the blog may be more valuable.  If there are many links, then it can become too confusing or disconnected and thus less valuable...

Rambling here, so I'll stop.  Just feel strongly that the value of these network value calculations is conflicting or constraining on each other, not entirely additive...

comment [] 129 9:55:49 AM G!.

Had a nice evening at another private school auction.  Small school and while we don't have kids there ourselves, a number of people we know have or had kids there.  You would never know there was a recession for the prices people paid for stuff.  Oh, granted that it is for a good cause...  But over $500 to have a teacher make your kids lunch for a week???  Or over $500 for a coat made from duct tape (and not a new coat either...).  Several items sold in the thousands.  I'm sure it was a great success.

It also made me realize that my personal network is still pretty damn small.  Who are these parents - cars lined the streets as the parking lot was full.  SUV's BMW's Mercedes, etc.  And these are not generally right wing types.  This is an artistic and culturally oriented school.  Who are these parents and where do they get their wealth?  Doesn't quite seem like the tech sector.

We sat with a judge and a former hospital president turned teacher.  Others we know there are professors, vp's at local companies...  Still I think our contacts are not representative of the tables spending the bucks.  There was serious money there and it is interesting to wonder about who these high-bidding types are.

comment [] 128 9:13:43 AM G!.