Creating the Future - There's No Going Back To "Normal"

We will almost certainly never go back to a stable, orderly world in which human and business activities proceed in an incremental, linear and logical manner.  Peter Vaill, a management professor at American University, has described in a book titled "Learning As A Way Of Being" our environment today as “permanent whitewater” – constantly streaming forward, moving quickly, generating turbulence as the daily events and continuous flow of new products, technologies, and services keep us paddling along. We’re trying to navigate through the rapids and avoid smashing, in spectacular fashion, into the many obstacles in our path.

In the world of information technology, one constant that has not yet suffered wrenching revision is Moore’s Law, which states that the available computing power on one chip doubles every 18 months.  Indeed, we have seen many of the effects and benefits of Moore’s Law as computers have steadily grown more powerful, more rapid and less expensive.  This continues today. 

And, as computers have grown more powerful, they have also become interconnected - worldwide throughout organizations, countries and societies. While that has been going on, software and hardware have been converging immutably, so that what took hours three years ago takes minutes today, and what takes minutes today will take seconds next year.  Convergence crops up in many forms, including unified messaging systems (UMS), PDA’s that will soon have VOIP capability and so serve as phones, messaging systems and mini-computers, and social networking software that will combine blogging, semantic search and online presence. 

This convergence in software is occurring rapidly, as clever systems engineers and coders find ways to integrate various capabilities, yielding version 1.n of the latest and greatest spreadsheet or better yet, corporate integrated systems that encompass all the work that needs to be done internally and externally.

This convergence will soon slam into the working lives of the technically literate, those already ICQ’ing throughout the day with friends and family, and playing video games at home or on-line anywhere around the world.

As software gets smarter, today’s young people – tomorrow’s knowledge workers - will continue to take this infrastructure for granted.  They will be demanding workers, and they won’t easily tolerate conditions that don’t allow or enable them to do what they know is possible.

As information and knowledge continue, endlessly, to flow in, through, from and around organizations, performance support systems help us manage the cacophony of information noise engulfing us. But in order to use these effectively, we need to learn and adapt continuously. 

Why?  The history of humankind is the story of ongoing adaptation and evolution.  People have always fiddled with stuff to make it work better, faster, easier.  Get rid of a few parts here, add this functionality, combine these two things, eliminate that one because no one uses it any more --and so it goes.  There’s no reason to think that this evolution will stop.  If anything, it will speed up, and we may find ourselves “standing in the headlights”, unsure which way to turn.

We may find ourselves turning more and more to alternative “wisdoms”, based less on the mechanistic Newtonian metaphors that have informed our structures and processes during the Industrial Age, and more on the principles of natural cycles and rhythms found in biology and ancient Eastern spiritual traditions. 

We can hold onto what we “know” works for only so long  (usually longer than the actual period of time it has continued to work).  As Watts Wacker, an eminent futurist, has noted, “The greatest power operating in the world today is denial.”  In Western society, we have not been taught how to “let go.” 

We must learn a new dance that involves: 

• Holding on to our values, to what is timeless, and to what we know works for us
• Letting go of what no longer works, no longer serves us or the common good
• Taking on  that which we need to move forward, a new way
• Moving on rather than needlessly resisting change and movement able to shape and our activities

This new dance is closely related to the fundamental characteristics of Wirearchy – speed, flexibility, innovation and integration.  Those characteristics cannot flourish, and be used in service to the needs of our human systems, without us, as individuals and organizations, adopting and learning to use new mental models and mindsets that enable us to learn faster and more fluidly.

For better or for worse, we live in a society of organizations.  Peter Drucker, the pre-eminent business and social philosopher, suggested in a seminal article titled “The Age of Social Transformation,” that we are more than ever living our lives in a world of organizations.

Again, paradox is everywhere.  Just as organizations and institutions must play an essential role in holding societies together through providing essential services, shaping large degrees of consensus, and providing workplaces for large numbers of people – they are more than ever experiencing extremely large, unstable and fluid factors that have forced them to alter in fundamental ways the social contract that has held the workplace “mental model” in place for the last fifty years.

Do people generally believe (or did they believe, until the bear markets and September 11th event) that the massive job-cutting of the early ‘90’s was an isolated phenomenon?  Is there hope still lurking around the corner that the recession of late 2001 will be V-shaped and that we’ll soon all get back to the promised long-term abundance of the Internet-based Knowledge Age, with low unemployment, high salaries and a “war for talent”?  Or will Jeremy Rifkin’s “The End of Work” become eerily prescient?

Reality is likely to intervene for the foreseeable future.  However, what appears to be irrevocable is the shift to using software and the Internet to codify, streamline and connect everything.

Organizations will need to use the principles of Wirearchy to inform what they do, why they do it, and how they do it.  They will have to take into consideration, much more than ever before, a multitude of interconnected stakeholders.  They will have to take into account what and how they say, and what mechanisms they use to maintain these all-important connections in an every-which-way connected world.  The Cluetrain Manifesto spelled this out for us, and for organizations, in no uncertain terms.

As for individuals faced with this electronic circus .... whew! 

We’ve all heard (and may believe) that there are more opportunities now than ever before, that the Internet, new niches, branding, new business models, global reach, and so on, are all harbingers of an era of boundless possibilities.  And for a while, this truly seemed to be the case.  Lots of dot-coms offered very different business models, or targeted a narrow sliver of a market, or combined existing capabilities in new ways and forms.  Lots of people headed off to try their luck in the Information Age’s gold rush.

As of the summer of 2001, this new economy of possibilities seemed headed for the dustbin of history.  And yet today, the Internet is still here, and there are still many (if not most) organizations building more capability for performing more work activities using smart applications, purpose-built portals and the Internet.

In most instances, workers will not have much choice if they choose to work in an organization.  Organizations today seek efficiency first and foremost, and will have to continue the path of ramping up their information management and business-process streamlining capabilities, or their competitors will undercut or overrun them.  Workers will be forced to use integrated, efficiency-based information-work technologies, more and more.

As a generalization, for middle-aged and older generations still in the organizational workplace this will become more and more troublesome.  Changes that require increased speed, flexibility and integration are likely to continue coming, thick and fast.  The ability to adapt while still leading a balanced life has already become a prized attribute.  Going back to the way things used to be done is an option rapidly fading in the rear-view mirror.

For younger generations, this will not be as much of an issue, for they are informed, adept with information technology, and understand that no employment is secure.  They have "big thumbs", AND they subscribe, wholeheartedly, to the advice “Do what you love, because all you can rely on is yourself.

However, as the realities of the adult life cycle take hold, and as change continues to swirl across the landscape of the workplace, even the younger generations will bump into limitations.  The skills required keep changing, and the need to create and manage new and old connections to achieve work objectives, place tremendous demands on the worker of tomorrow.  As the demands of competition and growth continue, they will find that the need to adapt and remain flexible becomes more difficult to access continuously.

More than ever, the ancient nostrums of “know yourself” and “to thine own self be true”, will occupy a central place in the work place of every individual worker. 

Being connected to oneself will become the all-important competency in a completely interconnected and fluid workplace and world. 

While this has always been the wisest of counsel, there was a widely accepted and conventional structure and clear roles available to us for managing our path through life in our society.  Generally, we knew where we stood, and what was expected of us.

Today this seems to be less and less the case.  Normal ?  What's that ?

It's up to us, at first one by one, and then, eventually together in groups, to create the interconnected meaning in which we will live - our new and ever-evolving "normal".

comment [] 241 4:28:38 PM G!.

OK OK so I'm nominally a venture capitalist - and that means I am looking for interesting new ventures.  I just registered for BloggerCon and have a sinking feeling it's going to be a sad group of engineers who cannot think of business models, and Howard Dean supporters who still want Howard as President.

Now I have not looked at the BlogggerCon pages on what the topics might be - but here's a quick thought - How bout ways that Blogging can be used to enhance the effectiveness of businesses (Klogging comes to mind, but it doesn't quite feel right - Knowledge management just doesn't seem to be the right space for Blogs).  Give me a business model or two and I'll connect you to some capital (maybe).

Left the last BloggerCon inspired by the revolution - but with no idea where it's going!  Kind of like Social Networking Software - how to make this work...

You know the feeling?

comment [] 240 4:12:26 PM G!.

comment [] 239 4:03:34 PM G!.

Rob Cross: Introduction to Social Network Analysis

SNA 101

comment [] 238 3:37:38 PM G!.

I need some inspiration to clean my workspace - only 32% sounds low - not real data.

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CNET: Feeling blue? Maybe it's your cubicle.

CNET: Feeling blue? Maybe it's your cubicle

"Nearly half of women surveyed--46 percent--and 32 percent of men said their emotional state was closely tied to the condition of their workspace."
Workspace design is an important element in knowledge sharing too. Tom Davenport analyzed such causal relationships sometime back.

comment [] 237 3:29:36 PM G!.

Thanks Lis - Again an eye for things that are interesting (yes I did make it through your menstruation blog entry... just didn't comment or post about it).

Interesting how quickly you describe someone's blog as being about something - but when asked what your blog is about, you hesitate and can't quite describe it.

Now, not having looked at Janine's blog, I cannot say if it is really focused on "knowledge animals and their territories" or just focused on that today!  I think I'm more in your camp - my blog doesn't appear to be about much more than those things that happen to capture my attention while I am in blog posting mode... (Clearly not very often, given a lack of postings for all of February)

On the other hand, if someone were to analyze the 7000 or so posts you have left in your wake (plus a thousand in your blog), I be there would be some clear themes that would emerge.  If you really wanted to, you could find out what your blog is really about - and then determine if you really would be happier in academia...

Just a thought or two...

I think I will add this to the comments part of your posting - You've inspired me.

Sigh....

Reading this makes me wish I were in academia:

Damnit, I came up with a model of information-seeking behavior back in late 2001; At the time I was able to do some further readings into existing models, with which mine seemed compatible, but I don't have the time or resources to explore it on my own! <gnash><gnash>frustration!

comment [] 236 3:08:42 PM G!.

While waiting for some other log processing to finish, I had a moment to review the software agents that pull the rss & atom feeds from the weblog. In past two months there were 141 unique agents that requested one of the 3 feeds. Of the unique 'users' (for some definition of unique) 75% of them use one of the big 6 aggregators.

The numbers on all the 141 agents can be found in the extended posting.

comment [] 235 2:45:05 PM G!.

It's been a few months since I've posted - a very busy and exciting time here at Groove. Both in terms of what's been happening in the business and market, but also because we're closing in on the first beta of Groove V3. I can't wait to tell you about the improvements in V3 ... because after having used it day in and day out for a few months now, I've simply never felt nearly this excited about a product that I've worked on. And that says a lot. More on V3 in a few weeks!

For those of you who have been following Groove for quite some time, you may recall that the product's original raison d'être was to enable people "at the edge" to dynamically assemble online into secure virtual workspaces, to work together and to get something done, even if those individuals were in different organizations with completely different IT infrastructure.

Today, with the gracious permission of one of our most significant customers, Groove made an announcement that I'd like to talk about for a moment. It's very significant to me for two reasons: First, the nature of how Groove is being used in this solution demonstrates to the extreme the very reason why Groove was built the way it was, from a technology and architecture perspective. Decentralization at its finest. The customer's core challenge was to enable individuals from many, many different organizations - most of whom had little or no opportunity for training - to rapidly assemble into small virtual teams to selectively share information, make decisions, get the job done, and disassemble. The individuals are geographically dispersed. They use different kinds of networks, behind different organizations' firewalls and management policies. They are very, very highly mobile. And there are few applications where the requirement for deep and effective security is more self-evident.

Groove's press release can be found here.

The Department of Homeland Security's press releases related to HSIN can be found here and here, while Secretary Ridge's remarks are here.

Why was a decentralized architecture for this network so fundamentally important, and thus why was Groove uniquely suited for the task? This brings me to the second reason that I'm tremendously pleased to have had the opportunity to contribute to solving this problem. Larry Lessig taught us that in software-based systems in cyberspace, the code can define outcomes - inadvertently or intentionally - that might have an impact on society. Or better stated in this case, the system's core architectural design principles have a real impact not only on the system's mission effectiveness, but also in how it might effectively preserve and protect rights.

To understand these issues more deeply, one need look no further than the eloquent work released this past December by the Markle Foundation Task Force on National Security in the Information Age, called "Creating a Trusted Network for Homeland Security".

If you're interested in the "why" of decentralization, read the report. Look at the members of the task force. And take particular note of their proposed SHARE network and its architecture. (Interestingly, Richard Eckel wrote about it in his blog before he became aware of the details of Groove's involvement with HSIN.)

Lots of stuff here to read, but it's truly fascinating if you are interested in understanding how decentralization and peer-to-peer technology is having a real impact on government and society.

Although so, so many people are involved in this project because of its scope, in particular I'd like to recognize Col. Tom Marenic, Pat Duecy, Ed Manavian, and especially our partner Mike Kushin of ManTech/IDS. My sincere thanks for your leadership, your passion about the mission, and your appreciation for organizational dynamics, social dynamics, technology and architecture in assembling a large and empirically effective system for purposeful social interaction. [Ray Ozzie's Weblog]

comment [] 234 2:41:32 PM G!.

Thanks to Due Diligence for this post  - Don Norman as Andy Rooney caught my eye...

In fact it makes Don's point  - that things that capture attention create an emotional response...  Smiling as I write this.

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The Last Day and the Last Brain Cell

The last day at ETech featured Don Norman's keynote. I have occasionally mocked Don (in a friendly way!) as the Andy Rooney of human interface - "Did you ever notice...." - as he's critiqued his way through computing and industrial design. But he's turned over a new leaf, and came to talk about 'enjoyable things', more accurately, products that create an emotional response. And the talk was a joy. Don really is a master raconteur, and his graphics were a great accompaniment - a contrast to certain other (ahem!) graphically challenged keynotes. Don convinced me to amazon his book on the spot, so he gets my pitch of day award.

I had to leave Bill Janeway's talk before the end, but caught most of it. I won't recite his dismal stats on the effects of the NASDAQ and bubble bust on the VC biz, since I get to live that all the time. I think the approach to venture formation which he proposes is a valid and valuable one, and will continue to be a part of the capitalist ecology alongside the conventional round-driven model. I'll just put in one caution - that there's a bit of survivorship bias in the examples he used - eBay, et al. He makes it sound and look easy; it's not.

By this point, accumulated sensory overload and sleep deprivation were starting to take their toll. and brain cells were shutting down at an alarming rate. I visited the programmable matter and XML talks, and Dan Gillmor's blogging/journo affair, but saw no eye openers. I sat in on Bunny Huang's hardware hacking talk on a lark (the last circuit I built featured 14 pin DIPs), and did learn a lot about the low cost of reverse engineering even the most complex silicon products, as well as the continued ingenuity of hardware hackers.

In spite of my occasional snarking, this Etech was a worthy successor to the first. My compliments to the chefs. There was great hallway and lounge action, and I particularly enjoyed my first f2f meets with a lot of folks, of whom I'll specifically mention my blogdaddy Jeff Jarvis, Scoble, Jason Calacanis, and Allan Engelhardt. I'll post some photos over the weekend.

And very lastly, my best-of-show award goes>David Sifry of Technorati. He taught me some new things about a field I've followed for a very long time, and that's a rare gift. [Due Diligence]

comment [] 233 2:10:24 PM G!.

OK OK - you are endlessly fascinating - juxtaposing posts - On The Perceived Hermanetics of Didactic Fundamentalism and then this one... 

I am hot just imagining you in your bikini - pink hat - darjeeling dream

And Great Link to Daniel Day Lewis as Cecil - talk about contrasts - Room with a View and then Last of the Mohicans - don't underestimate the flexibilty of us tweedy guys...

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Cock-A-Doodle Do.

Cock-A-Doodle Do

comment [] 232 11:13:45 AM G!.

Thank you Halley - once again for keeping me on my literary toes.  My introduction to Uxor comes from an a capella song I sang back in high-school.  It is a very sophomoric tribute to latin lessons by John O'Keefe:

Amo, Amas

AMO, amas,

I love a lass

As a cedar tall and slender!

Sweet cowslips' grace

Is her Nominative Case,

And she's of the Feminine Gender.

Rorum, corum, sunt Divorum!

   Harum, scarum Divo!

Tag rag, merry derry, periwig and hatband,

   Hic hac, horum Genetivo!

Can I decline

A Nymph divine?

Her voice as a flute is dulcis!

Her oculi bright!

Her manus white!

And soft, when I tacto, her pulse is!

Rorum, corum, sunt Divorum!

   Harum scarum Divo!

Tag rag , merry derry, periwig and hatband,

   Hic hac, horum Genetivo!

O, how bella

Is my Puella!

I'll kiss sæculorum!

If I've luck, Sir!

She's my Uxor!

O, dies benedictorum!

Rorum, corum, sunt Divorum!

   Harum scarum Divo!

Tag rag, merry derry, periwig and hatband,

   Hic, hac, horum Genetivo!

John O'Keefe

Note the line above - "if I've luck sir, she's my Uxor."  In other words the beautiful woman he is singing about will become his wife!  Or, at least will perform some "wifely" activities...;-)

Thanks again=======================================================

Uxorial.

Uxorial

comment [] 231 10:56:33 AM G!.