Friday, September 13, 2002

Notes on Kevin Werbach & Jeremy Allaire Yesterday, Kevin Werbach (http://werbach.com/blog/) published this little tidbit in response to Jeremy Allaire: Lots of people agree we need to get beyond HTML and the page-based browser interface.  Only three companies, however, have large enough distribution to have a realistic shot at getting there with a software client: Microsoft, Sun, and Macromedia.  (Napster might have in a parallel universe, but 'twas not to be.)  Java seems destined to be a crucial piece of back-end infrastructure but a bit player on the client side.  Flash has >90% penetration, and it's on devices like Tivo and mobile phones as well as PCs.  If something other than Internet Explorer is going to be the interface of the future, Flash is most likely to succeed.  Not that it will be easy.  It's a risky strategy for Macromedia, because it goes away from the company's traditional focus and puts it directly in Microsoft's cross-hairs.  But the payoff could be huge. The back-end hooks and runtime are in place.  What's missing, so far, are compelling applications.  Jeremy? This is an interesting perspective. I agree that Java on the client has been very limited, but a JVM exists in over 75% of the browsers out there. Meanwhile, the oft-quoted Flash statistics fails to take into account that many versions of flash are included in that 90%. In order to run the new stuff that Jeremy is pushing, you need to download the latest version. Additionally, Java has a much higher foothold in the burgeoning device space. According to market analyst VDC, 64 million Java enabled devices will ship this year. By 2005, the number is expected to be close to 400 million devices (according to Cahner's In-Stat). It would take some significant work to get Flash into that market.  My money is on Java. 11:57:15 AM    feedback []

Politics and Memri's A friend of mine sent me an interesting article on what is happening in the world. I think it offers a strong and logical perspective. It also provides a link to a very important web site, that I wish more people knew about: http://www.memri.org/. I encourage anyone who reads this to go and take a look. http://www.nationalreview.com/nordlinger/nordlinger091202.asp Interestingly, my friend is an American working in Amsterdam. He told me that the Dutch people were shocked to see the extent of what happened, as they watched the news on the 11th. Apparently, the original event did not get the same type of coverage as the anniversary. My friend told the people over there have been very supportive since. By the way, this is not going to be a political blog. If you want that, go here: http://mideast-truth.blogspot.com/. I guess I just have some lingering feelings from the 9/11 anniversary. 9:35:18 AM    feedback []