Sizing Micro Markets Tim Oren is looking for help in sizing the potential of micro-publishing markets:
Now one problem from the point of view of us bloody-minded folks is that while there are studies that definitely show the power law curves' existence, there is precious little data to suggest how much of that curve might be newly monetizable (is that a word?), given the possible existence of things like attention focusing mechanisms or open micropayment systems. Although it feels good intuitively, there's precious little hard evidence that I've seen.
Note there are several reasons why this is a hard problem. Mini & micropublishing are going to be inherently niched. Each niche has its own characteristic power law coefficients. Each niche exists as an epiphenomenon of a community of interest. The standards for reward in each of these communities are going to differ. Ergo, some of the creators might want monetary compensation, but others may be more interested in other outcomes: influence, egoboo, attention. So you can't assume that just because the content source exists at a particular scale that it will be explicitly monetized.
So if you're with me so far, I'd like to issue a challenge: I'm looking for proxy measures for the potential size of mini & micropublishing markets, in any and all niches. I'm interested both in arguments as to why an existing phenomenon might be a good proxy, and in actual data. Just to give some examples: The number of non-label, indy bands that have made CDs might be a good proxy in one domain. Does anyone have that number? How many advanced amateur/semi-pro photographers have tried to sell their images online? Got a number? Got another idea for a currently observable proxy for likely intent to play if such a market existed? How would you measure it? Number of participants, both selling and buying? Total value?
I actually think eBay might be a good proxy (by the way, Tim, you asked for proof that creative networks scale?). A many-to-many structure like blogging that feeds off of Reed's Group Forming Networks Law. All I have been able to find is Emergent Behavior of Bidding, a study that shows how the buy side of the market forms a power-law. I haven't been able to find anything on the graph structure of the sell side of the network, uh, I mean, market. My guess is that the sell side of the market follows the law of the niche when competition is intense and transaction and switching costs are low.
Help Tim out if you can, the results will be valuable to all.
3:01:44 PM 
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