System Economics
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Tuesday, December 10, 2002
 

David Isenberg

Note: David doesnt use the word commodity, I stuck it in below

Kevin: In my dreams I would come up with a simple idea like Davids that is so powerful and everyone gets.

Im shocked to have never gotten below layer 7 in the discussion today and have people still call it infrastructure.  That's not infrastructure.  Infrastructure is important and uncertain. 

Today's news:

  • Massive failure by PTTs and ILECs, getting worse, and I can't wait.
  • Distance is dead, except where its being held back by regulation and monopoly
  • Yahoo BB hapan giving away modems, 12Mbps/ ~0.5 upstream 12000Yen/mo=~$15USD, started in April, took to September to get first 1M customers.  5M ADSL subs in an 80M person countries.  120k Fiber to the home (FTTH) customers.  Growth.  Cost of customer acquisition make him cringe
The Future (not evenly distributed yet)
  • VON in Atlanta, small company, Global IP Sound.  Shrink wrapped bundled with a Compaq Pocket PC with vanilla 802.11 with telephony that sounded better than PSTN. WITH NO TELCO IN THE LOOP.
  • When the net is better than POTS, the cash cow goes away
  • SIP (Session Initiation Protocol): what HTTP did for documents, SIP will do for communications
  • POTS: Sure you can do Internet on it, you can do it with smoke signals too
  • Simple networks provide connections, not services.  Providing commodity connectivity.  Services are enabled by smart edge devices.
  • Gilder's Law outpacing Moores Law, Depreciation iinversely nverse, Engineering effort scales according to nobody's law.
  • End-to-End principle, 25-30 years old, similar to stupid network -- if you can do something at the ends or at the middle, do it at the ends to preserve your options, use of the network will be different in the future.
  • Internetworking shifts control from network owner to end user
  • Telephony yet another application,  Bob Cannon and Bob Pepper at FCC
  • Winning apps not created by telcos, most haven't been discovered yet (SIP and presence management!!)
  • Old biz model
    • Voice-monthly income
    • network subsidized
    • physical subsid
  • Stupid model
    • apps are services -- a vibrant market
    • network is protocol -- a commons
    • physical a not subsidized -- he says the big question is the business model? -- the commodity business
  • Who owns and runs the network?
    • Telephone company? Difficult transition to the horizontal model
    • Cable company? Difficult to give up old video entertainment model
    • Municipalties? 125 experimenting
    • Utilities?
    • New kinds of company?
    • Customers?
  • Politics of End-to-End...big list of ideals vs. the Dark Side
  • GOLIATH LOST
Q&A
  • I posed the utility model question and he says Im right, but there are alternatives (he is right too)
  • Server should be at the edge of the network

7:16:23 PM    comment []


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