[Colin Glassey] Jim Henley Argues That Containment of Nukes Has Failed. Live With It.
Here is a great essay by one Jim Henley (here is the follow-up essay). He argues that the cat is out of the bag when it comes to nuclear weapons. Non-nuclear states have both the means and the motive to build nuclear weapons. The means is due to the fact that nuclear bombs are 1940's technology. In other words, what was really hard in 1940 is pretty easy in 2002. They have the motive because it is quite clear that nuclear powers don't get pushed around by the U.S. like non-nuclear powers are (think Serbia in 1998).
In the last 20 years we have spent billions to make sure that one country doesn't aquire nuclear weapons (Iraq). During that time India, Pakistan, and (according the the CIA North Korea) have all developed nuclear bombs. Aside from the declared nuclear states we know that South Africa and Brazil both started a nuclear weapon program. They both announced they had abandoned their programs in the early 1990s.
I still argue that we (the United States) should try to actively stop other states from aquiring nuclear bombs. I suspect we will fail over the long term but I think the consquences of acting to halt various evil states from developing nuclear bombs is not as bad as just letting them build them. In other words, active intervention to preserve the nuclear power status quo is the lesser of two evils. The greater evil would be to give up and have every major (and minor) state build nuclear bombs. The likely consequence: terrorist groups with no obvious base of operations aquire one or more nuclear bombs and blow up a large city of their choice.
The evils which fall from my lesser of two evils choice are: the United States becomes an object of hatred for much of the rest of the world. Other countries attempt to build nuclear weapons secretly and when these attempts are reveals, it becomes yet another test of American resolve to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. The United States spends a great deal of money (and lives) trying to halt the spread of nuclear weapons and fails to achive much (if anything). I'd rather be hated than give Al Queda a better chance to nuke New York.
12:06:49 AM 
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