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Sunday, February 09, 2003 |
Themes:
Estate Tax. Abusive tax shelters (see KPMG vs. Sprint execs).
Tax flattening. Set autoindexing (to median national family income) at 2x, 5x, 10x. Like so (assume median=30K): 10% 20-45K, 20% 45-90K, 30% 90K-150K, 40% 150K-300K, 50% 300K. For the estate tax 1.2M-3.0M 20% 3.0M+ 40%. Setting bands to the earnings of the median American family has a fundamental fairness.
Homeland Security. But play up the civil rights aspect. The stories coming out about what we did to American citizens and permanent residents are appalling.
Egovernment.
8:19:18 PM 
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The last few weeks have largely been dominated by the impending war in Iraq. This issue is so monumental that it will deeply impact the next presidential campaign in ways beyond the control of any candidate. Fortunately, for all but Bush, a loss or early withdrawal in 2004 is not the end.
1) If the war is a slamdunk (including a much better job of reconstruction than Afghanistan) 2004 is trivial for Bush. Many candidates will drop. May be a good building campaign for a newcomer.
2) If the war is tough but quick, it will be a hard-fought race in 2004. Remember Churchill. Reasonable scenarios include 25,000+ troops killed. Aggressive candidates will come out in favor of more reconstruction.
3) If the war is brutal or a standstill, old-school Democrats will rally around a traditional standard bearer whose fortunes will depend heavily on the state of the battle in 2004.
8:10:51 PM
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Monday, January 20, 2003 |
By the way, the movie Chicago is dynamite. What Moulin Rouge should have been. I'm definitely buying the DVD -- and unlike most of the ones I own I plan to view it on a regular basis.
1:55:17 AM
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A nice essay on studentsforedwards.com describing John Edwards' policies on education. My thoughts...
The under-25 crowd is ripe for the picking. Traditional Democrats, they are turned off by the focus on unions, social security, medicare, and senior citizens. The college system we have developed has real problems for students of modest means and they're feeling it. I was shocked by the Gallup 2000 numbers. Bush 46% vs. Gore 43% in the 18-29 year olds. 30-49 is the same 43%. The difference was the Nader vote (8% 18-29, 3% 30-49). Youth didn't trust Al Gore.
This makes for a tremendous market opportunity. Bush can't go young (he's spent way too much money already in office for a good handout). Lieberman/Gephardt can't due to their traditional Dem support base. Kerry and Edwards both have a legitimate chance. And the key is how this could warp the primaries. There needs to be Iowa for Edwards chapters started immediately at Iowa and Iowa State. Give them something to rally around (and raise the cash for the buses/stickers/etc.) and they'll flood the Iowa caucuses. Maybe not a win, but a strong and unexpected second. The apathy of youth work in your favor since there is a tremendous pool of untapped votes, far easier to convince than the "political junkies" who've heard of your opponents for years. Give them something really, really good and they'll flock in droves.
Here's my proposal:
A New Deal for Young Americans
1) All students who graduate from high school or receive a GED will receive a voucher for $5000 or one years' tuition (whichever is greater) at any postsecondary institution.
2) All students in the top 5% of their high school class will receive a voucher for $15000 or two years' tuition.
3) National Merit Scholarships will provide tuition for four years to 2000 high school students. (Currently $2000).
4) Civil service regulations will be changed to bring college graduates in at GS-7 or GS-9 (vs GS-5 and GS-7) and masters/PhD at GS-11. A GS-7 salary ($29K) is just not competitive for a prospect from a top university. I don't know of a single person from my college class (Harvard 1996) who entered the civil service even though there were huge numbers of public-spirited people who were more than qualified. Students will get a year for year tuition reimbursement/student loan repayment (beyond those from 1/2/3). Don't just limit this to homeland security -- the entire government is in desperate need of this breath of fresh air. The quality of junior civil servant we are getting today is pretty scary.
5) Work study for everyone. All full-time college students should get access to work-study to help fund their studies. This is a pretty cheap way to get student support since it radically eases finding a university job.
6) College graduate tax holiday. No withholding of federal taxes (and a $20,000 additional exemption) for six months after college graduation (one per person per lifetime). $10,000 for associates degrees/licensing as journeyman.
7) IRA Catchup. Full-time students can "make-up" missed IRA contributions within five years of graduation.
8) Tuition cap. Cap tuition and mandatory fees at $25,000/year. Universities can charge higher but surrender 1,2,3,5,6,7. This could be a big seller for "keeping college affordable for the middle class". Give extra kickers on the scholarships for schools less than $10,000/year (for example, in-state students at state schools). An example is two years instead of one for any graduate, four years instead of two for top 5%.
This is not cheap. No way, no how. It is probably not economically rational. But this would be incredibly effective at buying the votes of students and their middle class families.
1:44:43 AM
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Joe Lieberman is running for president...big surprise. This further slice carved out of the Democratic center makes it increasingly important to embrace the edges until people start dropping out. Poll numbers are looking good...how can Edwards break away from the pack?
12:56:30 AM
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Sunday, January 12, 2003 |
Meetup is a pretty clever service that allows arbitrary groups of strangers to organize a meeting at a bar or restaurant. Free for the users, they try to make money off directing traffic to a location. I first saw it for Slashdot, a technology news site. Now they're doing the same for politics -- I signed up last week for the John Edwards Meetup to be held next month. If you're in Norfolk or Virginia Beach, VA, you'll even meet me there. A great idea once interest starts to build to help form grassroots community organizations prior to a formal political organization arriving in an area.
Click here to signup for the Meetup in your area: 
10:25:06 PM
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The best thing about writing a blog is that people regularly point me to good information. Most recently, Bill Scher of LiberalOasis pointed me to his analysis of John Edwards' TV performance a week ago. Very nice comparison between Edwards and Dean. I don't know much about Dean, but the key for either candidate is the comparison against Bush. Edwards "wonky" proposals such as the refundable energy tax credit, 9 months of bonus depreciation, etc. seem well-thought out and can be comprehensible to the average voter.
I think that more important than most policy proposals, however, is the election style. Bush's very centralized, very on-message campaign worked well against Gore, who went through advisors more rapidly than I normally update my blog. This has become worse in the White House. A winning Democrat needs a freewheeling, grassroots campaign dependent on high technology.
To John Edwards: The young don't vote because they see no difference between the candidates. So give them one. Start a blog. Answer some email. Host weekly chats with key campaign staffers (and once in a while be there yourself). Form a grassroots policy organization and advocate a couple of small policies from citizens instead of lobbyists. Put a webcam in your bus. Promise to appoint a cabinet member under the age of 30. Tour the country with Eminem this summer. Run a paperless campaign.
Citizens decry the rise of form over substance in politics. But no national candidate has attempted a truly different campaign and political form. The minor differences in political priority and methodology of Bush and Gore were nearly submerged in personality and party. Instead of advocating policies, advocate a new system of creating policies. Use an online, web-based, citizen opinion system to set your campaign priorities. Don't be ruled by the mob, but don't force us mob members to use dysfunctional intermediaries like AARP to have any influence over the system. When I look at the policy organizations of major campaigns, I see a carefully exclusive cabal designed to maximize contributions and poll numbers. Risk everything by going directly to the people and listening. Deploy a Slashdot-style discussion system for your campaign proposals. Listen to those who achieve high Karma, rather than the political lifers beginning to wake from their between-campaign hibernation. Instead of paying $100,000 for a poll, hire college students for $500 and ten large pizzas.
If you play by the rules, you are unlikely to win. Too little experience. However, the experience gap allows you the freedom to imprint yourself as you wish, to redefine the future in terms of what you want the present to be. Just as Bill Clinton, was a youthful, charismatic outsider to George Bush, you can be a technology-savvy modern man of the people to Bush and his oligarchy.
10:14:56 PM
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Tuesday, January 07, 2003 |
And the last one...I promise...9% for Edwards in the Zogby America poll. Just behind Lieberman (11%) and neck and neck with Kerry (9%). Gephardt (8%) and Daschle (now out...7%) just behind.
Against these three opponents, Edwards has a great opportunity. I can't wait for him to get on the trail and in the debates -- it's only up from here.
11:54:19 PM
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I turned back on comments. I'd rather have them than a slightly better looking template. I appreciate all the comments and emails I've received. Even the anti-edwards ones have all been printable and some very well argued (for example, James on 12/20 on the bottom post). I hope you'll continue to read, regardless of your perspectives.
11:46:58 PM
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Oliver Willis is producing a quality John Edwards blog (and links to mine...thanks for the email). Check it out -- it's certainly updated more frequently than mine and is chock full of good information. And the official site is looking very nice post-announcement. Coming soon I'm hoping to have a review of who owns the various johnedwards domain names (BTW, this site is accessible as presidentjohnedwards.org and presidentedwards.org) for general information. Unsurprisingly, I was beaten to almost all of the best ones (but at $8/pop why not pick up a few?), though frankly I find a .org more appropriate than a .com.
11:33:50 PM
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Well, I'm back in town. And the race is starting to heat up. Good coverage over the holidays of John Edwards in the NYT and all the national media as surprise, surprise, he decided to run for President. I thought the coverage was pretty favorable (and hot off the presses is that Daschle won't run...in certain respects a negative since Edwards contrasts nicely with that portion of the party so it would be good to split those votes). For Edwards to win the nomination, he likely needs a wide open race since his numbers are low currently. For example, running against Gore in 2000 would have been suicide (ignoring the fact that there was very little political experience). Yet this is neither surprising nor a bad thing.
11:29:11 PM
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Wednesday, December 18, 2002 |
Safire predicts a Kerry/Edwards ticket. I prefer Edwards/Kerry. A Massachusetts Democrat will not win a presidential election (see Michael Dukakis).
11:12:48 PM
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This is an interesting graphical/timeline depiction of the presidential race from Lance Knobel. Via John Robb's weblog, which is great for general interest and high-tech topics and is how I was introduced to Radio (it is very powerful, yet silly easy -- John is the President of Radio's publisher).
11:08:51 PM
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Well...I've been a bad blogger. Rule #1 of blogging: Don't start a blog you don't intend to keep. Rule #2: Every blog started somewhere.
So back to politics. A lot has changed in the last month. I'm very pleasantly surprised at the number of comments and emails I've received. Obviously, I'm not the only one thinking in this direction.
Since last month, two major things happened. First, the polls. I'll just mention one (the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion of NH voters): 2%. Other polls I've seen consistently place Edwards between 1-3%. Second, Al Gore is out. Thank goodness. I was preparing for Walter Mondale II. Al Gore is a gifted politician but all politicians have a sell-by date. George W. was so effective precisely because he was relatively unseasoned. There was no history of imperfect policies and missed promises (natural for any politician the way they are currently elected) on the national level. Al Gore peaked in 2000.
With Gore gone the 2% goes from the impossible to the manageable. Initially, I had hoped for Edwards a solid second, ready to take the reins in case of scandal or political disaster, primed for the VP, shifting the nature of the political debate through a strong primary season. But frankly Gore's money machine and political engine would be unstoppable. He had his own destiny.
No one had heard of Bill Clinton, an obscure Southern governor, in 1990. I can remember in November 1990, talking politics at a high school football game (being in high school I felt quite at home) after reading an article in The Economist about Bill Clinton. My buddy Wesley was in disbelief when I told him that he would be the Democrat's candidate in 1992. And so he was. His numbers were no better than John Edwards' are today. 31% of the NH voters were just freed by Gore. 28% are Kerry supporters (NH is all too much a suburb of Boston). Eliminate those too liberal to win (Gephardt, Daschle - 8%).
The conclusion: Lieberman, Edwards, Kerry are each potential winners in Spring 2004. And Edwards has the best geographical positioning for a national victory (NH is impossible).
10:47:50 PM
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Thursday, November 07, 2002 |
Welcome to my new blog!
The purpose of this blog is to cover the 2004 Presidential race focusing on one candidate, Senator John Edwards, a Democrat from North Carolina.
I have no idea what the next two years will entail, or even if this site will even exist on Election Night 2004. Regardless, I believe John Edwards is the future of the Democratic Party. I am by no means an ardent Democrat (in fact, I have voted Republican more often than Democrat). But as a moderate I strongly believe that both parties must run from the center. I find John Ashcroft and Richard Gephardt equally appalling. Focusing on the extremes creates an arbitrary dichotomy of political viewpoints instead of giving the American public a genuine choice between well-crafted, researched, moderate centrist policies.
And a George Bush weblog? Boring....
11:27:28 PM
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© Copyright 2003 John Stafford.
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