Well...I've been a bad blogger. Rule #1 of blogging: Don't start a blog you don't intend to keep. Rule #2: Every blog started somewhere.
So back to politics. A lot has changed in the last month. I'm very pleasantly surprised at the number of comments and emails I've received. Obviously, I'm not the only one thinking in this direction.
Since last month, two major things happened. First, the polls. I'll just mention one (the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion of NH voters): 2%. Other polls I've seen consistently place Edwards between 1-3%. Second, Al Gore is out. Thank goodness. I was preparing for Walter Mondale II. Al Gore is a gifted politician but all politicians have a sell-by date. George W. was so effective precisely because he was relatively unseasoned. There was no history of imperfect policies and missed promises (natural for any politician the way they are currently elected) on the national level. Al Gore peaked in 2000.
With Gore gone the 2% goes from the impossible to the manageable. Initially, I had hoped for Edwards a solid second, ready to take the reins in case of scandal or political disaster, primed for the VP, shifting the nature of the political debate through a strong primary season. But frankly Gore's money machine and political engine would be unstoppable. He had his own destiny.
No one had heard of Bill Clinton, an obscure Southern governor, in 1990. I can remember in November 1990, talking politics at a high school football game (being in high school I felt quite at home) after reading an article in The Economist about Bill Clinton. My buddy Wesley was in disbelief when I told him that he would be the Democrat's candidate in 1992. And so he was. His numbers were no better than John Edwards' are today. 31% of the NH voters were just freed by Gore. 28% are Kerry supporters (NH is all too much a suburb of Boston). Eliminate those too liberal to win (Gephardt, Daschle - 8%).
The conclusion: Lieberman, Edwards, Kerry are each potential winners in Spring 2004. And Edwards has the best geographical positioning for a national victory (NH is impossible).
10:47:50 PM 
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