Sunday, February 09, 2003

Themes: Estate Tax. Abusive tax shelters (see KPMG vs. Sprint execs). Tax flattening. Set autoindexing (to median national family income) at 2x, 5x, 10x. Like so (assume median=30K): 10% 20-45K, 20% 45-90K, 30% 90K-150K, 40% 150K-300K, 50% 300K. For the estate tax 1.2M-3.0M 20% 3.0M+ 40%. Setting bands to the earnings of the median American family has a fundamental fairness. Homeland Security. But play up the civil rights aspect. The stories coming out about what we did to American citizens and permanent residents are appalling. Egovernment.  8:19:18 PM    comment []

The last few weeks have largely been dominated by the impending war in Iraq. This issue is so monumental that it will deeply impact the next presidential campaign in ways beyond the control of any candidate. Fortunately, for all but Bush, a loss or early withdrawal in 2004 is not the end. 1) If the war is a slamdunk (including a much better job of reconstruction than Afghanistan) 2004 is trivial for Bush. Many candidates will drop. May be a good building campaign for a newcomer. 2) If the war is tough but quick, it will be a hard-fought race in 2004. Remember Churchill. Reasonable scenarios include 25,000+ troops killed. Aggressive candidates will come out in favor of more reconstruction. 3) If the war is brutal or a standstill, old-school Democrats will rally around a traditional standard bearer whose fortunes will depend heavily on the state of the battle in 2004. 8:10:51 PM    comment []