Wednesday, September 10, 2003

History: HRE like america today.. book review Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 9:17:45 PM     Jason Lavery. _Germany's Northern Challenge: The Holy Roman Empire and the Scandinavian Struggle for the Baltic, 1563-1576_. Studies in Central European Histories Series. Boston and Leiden: Brill, 2002. xx + 164 pp. Notes, bibliography, indexes. $80.00 (cloth), ISBN 0-391-04156-8. Reviewed for H-German by David Whitford <whitford@claflin.edu>;, Department of Philosophy and Religion, Claflin University The Holy Roman Empire may not be an enigma wrapped mystery, but it has always been easier (especially since Voltaire) to describe what it was not rather than what it was. This remains the case today. There are, largely, two rival interpretations of the empire. The first, associated with Prussian history, blames the Reformation generally and the Peace of Augsburg specifically for weakening the empire from within. When the Peace of Augsburg (ratified in 1555) allowed for confessional diversity within the empire, it undermined the cohesive social network necessary to a unified state. According to this view, all was completely lost when the Palatinate converted to Calvinism without facing any real repercussions. In the Peace of Augsburg, the only two officially recognized and authorized religions were Roman Catholicism and Lutheranism. From that point on, writes Ranke, unity was impossible. The obligatory opposing theory argues that the perceived weakness of the empire was in fact really a strength. By limiting the power of a single estate and protecting the prerogatives of smaller or weaker estates, the imperial constitution encouraged the building of coalitions and consensus, and allowed the empire to avoid many of the vicissitudes of absolute monarchy. ********

Stratfor on US punishing Europe through dollar fall. Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 8:38:28 PM     and also ( I didn't know this went on). The primary reason was that the dollar's plunge versus the euro was a quietly orchestrated affair designed to punish Paris and Berlin for their intransigence on the issue of Iraq. It proved damaging enough to hurl the eurozone into recession and sabotage broader European growth prospects for the remainder of 2003. Japan, however, did not suffer nearly as much as Europe. Washington's lack of criticism of Tokyo's currency-printing orgy suggests that Japan received at least tacit permission to counteract the dollar's fall. ********

russia and power Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 8:35:49 PM     also from stratfor   At stake is nothing less than the primacy of the Kremlin in Russia's political affairs. Stratfor sources within both Yukos and the Russian presidential administration say Russian President Vladimir Putin fears that Yukos chairman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the country's richest man and arguably most powerful oligarch, is maneuvering to lead the country in a de jure, if not de facto, sense. Putin is working vicariously through federal prosecutors to convince Khodorkovsky to stick to business, and -- should he prove less than receptive -- to cut him down to size. ********

article: Stratfor on the two year old war against terror - wrong frame? Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 8:33:25 PM     From statfor weekly But at this point, the battle is in doubt: 1. The United States must craft strategies for keeping both the Afghan and Iraqi campaigns at manageable levels. In particular, it must contain guerrilla activities at a level that will not be perceived by the Islamic world as a significant victory. 2. The United States must continue to force or induce nations to collaborate without bringing down any governments. 3. Al Qaeda must, at some point, bring down a government to maintain its own credibility. At this point, merely surviving is not enough. Both sides now are caught in a battle. The United States holds the resource card: Despite insufficient planning for manpower requirements over the course of the war, the United States is still in a position to bring substantial power to bear in multiple theaters of operation. For al Qaeda, the card is another massive attack on the United States. In the short run, the network cannot do more than sustain the level of combat currently achieved. This level is insufficient to trigger the political events for which it hopes. Therefore, it has to up the ante. The next months will give some indication of the direction the war is going. Logic tells us that the United States will contain the war in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, in Afghanistan. Logic also tells us that al Qaeda will attempt another massive attack in the United States to try to break the logjam in the Islamic world. What al Qaeda needs is a series of uprisings from the Pacific to the Atlantic that would topple existing regimes. What the United States needs is to demonstrate that it has the will and ability to contain the forces al Qaeda has unleashed. At this moment, two years into the war, the primary pressure is on al Qaeda. It has not yet demonstrated its ability to achieve its goals; it has only achieved an ability to mobilize the means of doing so. That is not going to be enough. On the other hand, its ability to pull off massive and unpleasant surprises should not be underestimated. comment: making the key struggle in the world that ebtween alqueda and the US makes it so. But there were and are many oehr ways of structuring the current dialectic: technology and fgree markets vs quality of life, for example. But the corporate world would rather we be distracted by the Collesium than by political analysis that goes to fundemanetals. Stratfor seems to play into that picture, and it makes sense becasue that is mosty who its clients are. ********

News: Columbia and Argentina Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 8:16:33 PM     from the CSM, excerpts Furious human-rights advocates in Colombia accused President Alvaro Uribe of endangering their lives in comments suggesting they acted "in the service of terrorism" by attacking his government's record. On Monday, Uribe publicly criticized a joint report by more than 80 such organizations entitled "The Authoritarian Curse." It accuses the military of using excessive force and putting civilian lives at risk in its campaign to defeat a 39-year communist insurgency. Last year, 17 human-rights workers in Colombia were murdered or disappeared, allegedly at the hands of outlawed right-wing militias. Risking further isolation of its fragile economy, Argentina failed to meet Tuesday's deadline for a $3 billion payment on its debt to the International Monetary Fund. The default is the largest in IMF history. The decision was made not to "compromise" one-quarter of the nation's foreign currency reserves, a government statement said. Argentina has been trying to persuade the IMF to roll over $12.5 billion it's owed between now and 2006. ********

Iraq, history: Dali lama Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 7:48:46 PM     Wise to consider that in the long run the incursion into Iraq may look OK, despite the mangled logic and leadership and implementation and follow through. We need to be prepared for such an outcome.   Dali Lama: Iraq War May Be Justified Wednesday September 10, 2003 11:09 PM By SCOTT LINDLAW Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - The Dalai Lama said Wednesday that the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan may have been justified to win a larger peace, but that is it too soon to judge whether the Iraq war was warranted. ``I think history will tell,'' he said in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday, just after he met with President Bush. ``In principle, I always believe nonviolence is the right thing, and nonviolent method is in the long run more effective,'' said the Dalai Lama, who after the Sept. 11 attacks had implored Bush to avoid a violent response by the United States. The exile Tibetan leader, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, said the Vietnam War increased suffering and was a ``failure.'' But, he said, some wars, including the Korean War and World War II, helped ``protect the rest of civilization, democracy.'' He said he saw a similar result in Afghanistan - ``perhaps some kind of liberation.'' ``The people themselves, I think, suffer a lot under their previous regimes,'' he said. But he was adamant that the United States not lose sight of rebuilding Afghanistan. The Dalai Lama urged Bush, in a letter on Sept. 12, 2001, to ``think seriously whether a violent action is the right thing to do and in the greater interest of the nation and people in the long run.'' Asked whether the Iraq war was just, the Dalai Lama said the situation there is ``more complicated'' and will take more time before he can judge. ********

911 in Chile many years ago. Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 7:28:05 PM     Worth posting, excerpt David Morris, AlterNet September 5, 2003 Viewed on September 10, 2003 September 11th marks the second anniversary of the aerial attack by terrorists that killed 2,700 people and profoundly changed American society.   September 11th also marks the anniversary, in this case the thirtieth, of the aerial attack by terrorists that led to the murder of more than 3,000 people and profoundly changed Chilean society.   American commentators probably won't mention the 1973 attacks on Chile and their aftermath. They should, because in those attacks it was the U.S. government that played the role of Al Qaeda -- recruiting, training, arming, financing and coordinating the terrorists. Our involvement in this unsavory affair is now widely recognized. As Secretary of State Colin Powell himself recently acknowledged, "It is not a part of our country's history that we are proud of."   Powell's comment implies a feeling of contrition that I doubt his colleagues in this Administration share. For the ties are remarkably intimate between those who planned the attacks on Chile's White House and those in charge of responding to the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld worked in the Nixon cabinet. And in a most telling demonstration of continuity, President Bush appointed Henry Kissinger, the central player in the overthrow of the Chilean government, to chair the Committee investigating the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. (Kissinger withdrew in the face of ferocious worldwide criticism.) ********

Is there one path to the future? Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 7:09:26 PM      overheard... I see a very disturbing rhetorical trend afoot.  The assumption of a "single sustainable model of development" (that's at least very close to a quote from the current National Security Strategy) is being used to argue that, absent evil influences, every nation on earth not only *can*, but *will* develop along lines preferred by the United States.  And that, in turn, means that anyone who even predicts the victory, say, of a communist revolution, is, shall we say, standing in the way of history, and is either foolish or criminal. [comment: From Fukuyama, Friedman and Ralph Peters, that trend certainly exists. ] ********

The US and the Flying Tigers Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 6:58:20 PM      overheard... The Flying Tigers were a tool set up by Washington to attack Japan. In July 1941 Washington decided to use China as a proxy to attack Japan in a significant way. This was not a theoretical paper plan. Tens of millions of dollars were spent, the planes were purchased, the pilots and ground crews were signed up by a dummy corporation controlled by FDR's aides and sent overseas. and trained by Chennault.   comment: thre is a long history of the US doing such. Chile another example. most are well known. the US could do beter and gain a ne kind of reputation. How to avoid however the label of "weakness?"   Roosevelt's "Nothing to fear but fear itself." is badly mangled by the Bush/Cheney style. ********

Iraq: From Japapn, use asks tribute Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 6:32:21 PM     Views from overseas often try to reflect the best of American values, against current realities.   Contributions for Iraq seem like tributes Often, when we actually see a person we usually see only on television, that person strikes us as unexpectedly small. The White House struck me the same way when I saw it in the U.S. capital for the first time. Of course, it was a stately and elegant edifice. But I thought it was small for the symbol of a superpower. In fact, I heard some Americans say in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks that one of the reasons the terrorists did not target the White House was that its small size made it difficult to aim a hijacked airliner at. The small White House has sent out massive ``bills.'' While asking Congress to appropriate an equivalent of about 10 trillion yen to finance operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, U.S. President George W. Bush on Sunday urged Japan, Europe and states in the Middle East to make financial contributions as countries that ``will benefit from the success of freedom'' in Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States resorted to military action in Iraq despite misgivings expressed by a considerable number of countries. Getting bogged down with the Iraqi occupation, Washington seeks massive financial contributions from other nations, even letting it be known that it will collect the sums it has asked for. Criticisms are prominent in the American and European media that the war in Iraq was based on overly optimistic prospects and that Bush has switched the focus from weapons of mass destruction to the war on terror. The mess in Iraq has fundamentally resulted from the Bush administration's pursuit of unilateralism. In his farewell address, George Washington, the first American president, said, ``Observe good faith and justice towards all Nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all. ... Nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular Nations, and passionate attachments for others, should be excluded.'' (A Japanese translation of the text of Washington's address is available in the form of a collection of American presidential speeches, published by Hara Shobo.) About 200 years have passed since then. The times and relations between the United States and the rest of the world have drastically changed. But Washington's farewell address holds out eternal lessons to be learned by all leaders. ********

Iraq: opinion from Yahoo: get out of iraq .. but... Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 4:18:00 PM     And another. This one proposes a solution to Iraq - leave - but the damage could be intense, showing that terror wins (against a bully US). so it seems to me we are stuck in a very bad place with no good outcome. If we support the US it really supports Bush, which many do not want to do. To not support the US and let Iraq become a new Kosovo (ethnic violence) would be terrible. Can the UN emerge as a real alternative? The UN is not liked either but letting it take over, wit chance of international support and finance,  looks to many as the best of three bad options. The real answer is to get the hell out before one more American or Iraqi gets killed in a lost cause. "Leaving now would place Iraqis under violent usurpers and set a precedent that could haunt the U.S. government for years," argues The New York Times' Christopher Marquis, but we've already blown our chance to make a good first impression. More money, more men, more international involvement--those were good ideas back in March. Now it's too late to avoid the ostracizing of the United States or the Afghanistanization of Iraq. ********

Bush limitations Posted here Wednesday, September 10, 2003 at 3:15:30 PM     If Bush is both stupid and very poorly educated, by school, friends, travel or even popular culture, then the US lacks an ability to evolve. We are stuck with stupid, stubborn, faking it  and bully bravado. A political crisis is likely to emerge long before the election. My guess is he does not remember Bre'r Rabbit and Tarbaby - hit and you get stuck.. The following is typical of the emerging disquiet in the press. Analysis: Insiders slam Bush's speech By JOHN WALCOTT Knight Ridder Newspapers WASHINGTON - Even some officials in the president's administration worry that in his address to the nation Sunday night he glossed over his shifting rationales for war in Iraq, oversimplified the sources of anti-American rage there and overstated the benefits of victory, both to the war on terrorism and to American policy in the Middle East. ********