Sunday, October 19, 2003

Stepenson's Quicksilver Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 10:18:54 PM     I've started reading Stephenson's Quicksilver, a novel of the 1650's to 1720's, focus on the scientific characters as if they were in charachters in a science graduate school today. It has its charm but seems to avoid the full social implications of the rise of science and political power, and the weird thinking of a real mechanist like Hobbes. But it has promise. Here is an interesting quote from a review. This may become a theme of Stephenson's next book, due out in April, for the alchemy of commerce is not unrelated to the alchemy that became science. Both transform object into number; both succeed only if the principles governing transformation can be established; both led to new worlds. It is no accident that a national currency crisis in the 1690s led to Newton's overseeing the manufacture of England's coinage and becoming master of the Mint. .Since I am interested in the common beliefs that allow science and commerce to commingle, and the reduction of the world to number is one important strand (see Poovey, The History of the Modern Fact, and Mirowski, Machine Dreams: How Economics became a Cyborg Science), the book is helpful, if limited. To my ear the two histories just listed are better stories than Quicksilver. ********

Workers get less Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 9:16:02 PM     From Slate's summary Rising health care costs at heart of labor strife San Jose Mercury News - 3 hours ago LOS ANGELES - Major labor strikes that erupted last week against grocery stores and the public transit agency here suggest that workers are increasingly willing to stop work over the spiraling cost of health care. Grocery workers fear joining the working poor San Diego Union Tribune At a crossroads Press-Enterprise (subscription) More evidence of the driving down of wages , and centralization, but also that healthcare is being used as a mechanism of wealth transfer, from workers to doctors and medical managers, such that workers get a small cost of living increase each year, but the heath bite from paychecks is larger, leaving them with a net decrease in actual takehome dollars. ********

Bush and invisibility Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 7:04:41 PM     One of the things that fascinates and provokes me is that we knew so much about Clinton and his doings during the presidency. We know so Little about Bush, as if he were a remote person, removed from living a life and being part of the flow. More of a person with very few levers at his disposal, a one button mouse, a flute with one hole... If I ask myself, what is going on, the lack of evidence is disturbing. ********

Iraq Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 6:17:17 PM     Let from yesterday.. no links.. This is helpful   The hawks came to see an Americanized Iraq as a replacement for Saudi Arabia. The plan was risky, not least because the secular Baath government had been among the main ramparts against Sunni and Shiite religious radicalism in the Gulf. The hawks argued that a liberated Iraq would kick-start a wave of democratization in the Middle East, paralleling events in Eastern Europe when the Soviet Union weakened and then fell. (They did not explain why the United States, if it wanted democratization, did not start with places like Egypt and Jordan, which were more plausible candidates, being allies, developed civil societies, and recipients of substantial aid). They believed, incorrectly, that Iraq’s petroleum-producing capacity—while not at Saudi levels—was significant enough to offset Saudi dominance of the oil markets. And unlike Saudi Arabia, Paul Wolfowitz thought, Iraq did not have holy cities such as Mecca and Medina that would make the stationing of U.S. troops there objectionable: Iraqis, he said, “don’t bring the sensitivity of having the holy cities of Islam being on their territory.” (He apparently did not then know about the Shiite shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala). The hawks were aware that a democratic Iraq would have a Shiite majority, but their client, Ahmad Chalabi (head of the expatriate Iraqi National Congress), convinced them that Iraqi Shiites were largely secular in mindset and uninterested in a Khomeinist theocracy. In the short term, they thought, Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress would run Iraq in at least a semi-democratic fashion   Eyeless in Iraq By Arthur Schlesinger Jr. President George W. Bush has made a fatal change in the foreign policy of the United States. He has repudiated the strategy that won the cold war—the combination of containment and deterrence carried out through such multilateral agencies as the UN, NATO, and the Organization of American States. The Bush Doctrine reverses all that. The essence of our new strategy is military: to strike a potential enemy, unilaterally if necessary, before he has a chance to strike us. Iraq: What Went Wrong By General Wesley K. Clark The decisive phase of the American campaign to invade Iraq and seize Baghdad was remarkably successful. But there were also problems that should not be ignored. Un-American Activities By Anthony Lewis The harsh treatment of aliens since September 11 has had little political attention. Relatively few Americans know or care much about it. In his powerful book, Enemy Aliens, David Cole shows why we should care, as a matter not only of humanity but of self-interest. The repressive measures that President Bush and Attorney General Ashcroft first took against aliens are now being applied to citizens.   ********

Columbia accident report Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 3:30:15 PM     This is important. A satement on why NASA managment failed. Sound familiar? Back in February, the space shuttle Columbia came in for a landing. It would pass over Northern California, so I was outside in the early dawn to watch it go overhead. But Palo Alto was cloudy that day. I came in and a few minutes, the radio news reported that the space shuttle had been lost during re-entry. All seven astronauts died. An accident review board, the CAIB, was created and they released their report a few weeks ago. Yesterday, I read the CAIB report. Here are a few notes and a summary of the report, along with links to the report. The day after takeoff, NASA engineers were reviewing the various videos of the takeoff. They noticed that a piece of foam hit the shuttle's wing. This started a discussion among NASA engineers as to whether the foam had caused damage. They estimated the foam was traveling at about 500 miles per hour when it struck the wing. However, NASA management had a tight schedule for a number of missions. There was no time for delays. In previous takeoffs, pieces of foam had hit the shuttles and nothing had happened, so management, who weren't engineers, concluded there was no need to look into this. NASA engineers, using personal contacts, asked the US military and intelligence agencies to use their spy satellites to look at the shuttle's wing. There were three separate attempts to ask for spy photos and each time, NASA management found out about these requests and ordered the military NOT to look at the shuttle. Managers warned the engineers to follow procedures. If the NASA engineers had gotten the images, they would have seen the hole, the astronauts could have stayed in the space station, another shuttle (Atlantis) could be sent up, and the astronauts could return on the second shuttle. At page 140 in the CAIB report, there is a description of these actions and decisions, with a list of three requests for images at p. 166 and a list of eight missed opportunities at p. 167, with a summary at p. 170. At p. 177, the CAIB looks into NASA's decision-making process. The piece of foam stuck the wing, creating a hole in the wing's leading edge. During re-entry, superheated air entered through the hole, melted the wing's aluminum internal structure, and the wing collapsed and fell off the shuttle as it was moving at 12,000 miles per hour. NASA managers, with their demand to stick to the schedule, their refusal to listen to the engineers, and using threats of reprimands against engineers who spoke up, caused the loss of the shuttle and the deaths of the astronauts. In the early 80s, the shuttle Challenger took off in cold weather. The Challenger accident review showed that engineers warned NASA before launch that the O-rings might fail and they asked for a launch delay. NASA managers overrode the engineers and went ahead with the launch. Challenger exploded and all seven astronauts were killed (summary of the Challenger event at p. 199-200.) From the CAIB's summary: ".NASA's management system is unsafe to manage the shuttle system." In contrast, the US Navy has a decision system that actively seeks minority or dissenting opinions. If there are no dissenting opinions, the officers are obligated to actively look for dissenting opinions. At NASA, the opposite was done: management suppressed dissent and did not seek it out. The CAIB report should be read by anyone who works in large organizations. It uncovers the blindness in organizational decision making, shows how this occurs, and how this can be remedied. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB at www.caib.us) 248-page report is at www.caib.us/news/report/default.html (PDF, 10 MB file). I suggest that you fetch this file; the CAIB website will close in early 2004. yrs, andreas www.andreas.com ********

Iraq and the ME, a deeper problem Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 11:44:06 AM     From Friedman in the NYT, which eh entitles "Courageous Arab Thinkers" But there is another tremor shaking the Arab world. This one is being set off by a group of courageous Arab social scientists, who decided, with the help of the United Nations, to begin fighting the war of ideas for the Arab future by detailing just how far the Arab world has fallen behind and by laying out a progressive pathway forward. Their first publication, the Arab Human Development Report 2002, explained how the deficits of freedom, education and women's empowerment in the Arab world have left the region so behind that the combined G.D.P. of the 22 Arab states was less than that of a single country — Spain. Even with limited Internet access in the Arab world, one million copies of this report were downloaded, sparking internal debates. Comment: the problem is, he holds up GDP as the measure, but we know that GDP can increase while class differentiation and marginalization can also increase. Part of the Arab reaction is to this dynamic and its deep unfairness nd clture destroying path. The logic, as I see it, is, if we can get the Arab countries to increase GDP, globalization is saved. The question then is, what is the dynamic of globalization?  If it is increased concentration of wealth and power through mega-corporations, smaller and richer elites, broken middle class incomes, genetically modified crops irresponsibly deployed, then the GDP scenario is deeply self defeating, and an illusion. If a better path is to balance GDP with some sense of social democracy - sharing the benefits and providing for quality of life along with market fores - then we are looking for an alternative we do not know how to reach. ********

NYT on Iraq future Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 11:18:44 AM     This Slate summary On the NYT Op-Ed page, this month's president of the Iraqi Governing Council, Iyad Alawi, makes two requests of the U.S.: 1) That it recall the disbanded Iraqi army and police force, up to mid-officer level. Most Iraqi soldiers and policemen are patriots, not Saddam loyalists, and they already have command structures and a political legitimacy that the U.S. will be unable to replicate from scratch. 2) That the U.S. urge international recognition of an interim Iraqi government after the Council drafts a constitution, but before a U.N.-monitored referendum on its adoption. "Making Iraqis once again a part of the international system is the prerequisite for ... a durable democratic system"; making international recognition contingent on adoption of the constitution would rob Iraqis of control of their destiny. hints at the way in which Iraq may ultimately work, with all the consequences for justification and power. ********

Wal-Mart, Driving Workers and Supermarkets Crazy Posted here Sunday, October 19, 2003 at 10:28:59 AM     There has ben a lot of hints at rationalization ofthe arket, wit increased centralization, and lowering pay or removing workers all together. he desire for cheaper fuels the resstowards smaller and yet more powerful elites. Published: October 19, 2003 n February Wal-Mart will open its first grocery supercenter in California, offering everything from tires to prime meats, and that could be a blessing for middle-class consumers. The reason is simple: Wal-Mart's prices are 14 percent lower than its competitors', according to a study by the investment bank UBS Warburg. ********