Good employment numbers to mull.
The economy gained 57,000 jobs in November, about a third of what analysts had predicted. (137,000 jobs were created in October.) Such a lackluster number, in the midst of an economy that grew at a breathtaking 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, is attributed in part to continuing productivity gains. (As the papers reported Thursday, productivity grew 9.4 percent annually last quarter, the highest rate in 20 years.) As might be expected in such a climate, temp jobs grew, as did hours worked. The economy has gained 328,000 jobs in the last four months, but has lost 1.1 million since the recovery began two years ago (NYT) and 2.35 million since the recession began in early 2001 (WP). The Post notes that analysts are predicting a 3 percent productivity rate and 4 percent growth rate next year; combined with a usual labor-force expansion of 1 percent, this would spell very few jobs.
November's unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a point, to 5.9 percent. However, the percentage of unemployed who have been job hunting for at least six months rose to its highest level since 1983. Last month, TP chided the papers for failing to explain the frequent dissonance between payroll numbers and the unemployment rate, which is based on a survey. Props to the NYT for explicating these statistical discrepancies at the end of its story today.
Note that productivity increases simply by decreasing the number of workers.
That account for 4% gtrowth minus 3% productivity = 1% employment improvement.
