So, Do You Feel Safer Yet?
If you don’t, you’re not alone. According to a just-released Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) poll, 70 percent disagree that “the threat of terrorism has been significantly reduced by the war”. This is up from just 43 percent who held this view in April. In addition, 56 percent disagree that “the war will result in greater peace and stability in the Middle East”, up from 32 percent in April.
And here’s another critical finding: the public overwhelmingly believes capturing Osama Bin Laden and breaking up al-Qaeda (75 percent) should be the central front in the war on terrorism, not capturing Saddam and establishing democracy in Iraq (21 percent). No wonder the public is becoming so worried about the costs and aims of our continuing occupation of Iraq: we’re not even aiming at the right target.
A couple of other interesting findings: the poll has Bush losing to an unnamed Democratic nominee for President, 48 percent to 42 percent. And the Democrats have a 6 point lead in party ID, pretty much their average lead for a number of years before September 11, 2001. This supports DR’s view that reported findings of parity in party ID between Democrats and Republicans were driven by post-September 11 surges in Bush’s popularity and do not accurately reflect the current situation.
Posted at 04:50 PM | link | Comments (1)
December 6, 2003
Once Again on the Youth Question
Yesterday, DR argued that youth are leaning Democratic and therefore, the more young voters who show up at the polls in 2004, the better. Here’s more confirmation from a just-released Ipsos/Associated Press poll. In this poll, Bush’s overall approval rating, as well as his approval ratings on the economy and on foreign policy, are all 7-10 points lower among young (18-29 years old) voters than among voters as a whole. And, among young voters, just 28 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, while 48 percent say they would definitely vote for somebody else. That compares to a 41 percent/36 percent split among all voters.
DC: as I see it, Bush will get more extreme closer to the election. It is hard now to imagine how that might go, since there are so many leverage points and unknowns. The most intersting would be successful legal challenges to aspects of the administration's actions.
