Wednesday, February 04, 2004


Posted here Wednesday, February 04, 2004 at 3:27:59 PM    

Given the investigations into WMD, another angle is Israeli competence and what was shared with the US.

When Ritter met with Israeli intelligence officials in 1998, they told him that Iraq had been reduced to the number six threat down from number one four years before, he said.

"In the end, if the Israeli intelligence knew that Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction, so the CIA knew it and thus British intelligence too," Ritter told Ynet. - Sapa-AP


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Blair losing on Iraq story
Posted here Wednesday, February 04, 2004 at 10:49:46 AM    

The tenison mounts. The attempt to scape goat the IC will probably faill badly.


World > Terrorism & Security
posted February 4, 2004, updated 1:00 ap
Bad day for Blair
Top UK WMD expert: Concerns about 'misleading' Iraq dossier were overruled
Reuters reports that British Prime Minister Tony Blair's efforts to quell the furor over Iraq's missing weapons of mass destruction have suffered another setback after a former top intelligence official tore apart his government's case for war. The Independent reports that Brian Jones, the former leading expert on WMD in the Ministry of Defense, declared that "not a single defense intelligence expert" backed Mr. Blair's most contentious claims about Iraq's WMD.

Those claims (including the controversial statement that Iraq's WMD could be deployed within 45 minutes to strike British bases in Cyprus) were presented a year ago by Blair's government as part of the Iraq dossier, a key plank in convincing the public of the case for war. Mr. Jones says the dossier was "misleading" concerning Saddam Hussein's chemical and biological capability. Jones added that intelligence experts failed in their efforts to have their views reflected in the final report.

The Guardian reports that Jones and a colleague issued a formal complaint about the Iraq dossier because they feared that they would be made "scapegoats" after the war when no weapons were found. Jones (who was responsible for analyzing all intelligence on nuclear, chemical and biological warfare) and members of his department warned that the Iraq dossier had overstated the case on Iraq's WMD capabilities, but they were overruled. They were also told that Britain's secret intelligence service, MI6, had other intelligence to back up the claims but it was considered to be so sensitive that it was "compartmented" and not shown to the other agencies.


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Posted here Wednesday, February 04, 2004 at 10:22:35 AM    

Long estract from the WSJ on Bernard Lewis's imopact on US ME policy. What strikes me is the gullability of the US leaders to his viewpoint, indicating that they have no other in depth sources of ME social understanding, and are basically under informed about the region.

After me terror attacks, White House
staffers disagreed about how to frame the
enemy, says David Frum, who was a speech-
writer for President Bush. One group be-
lieved Muslim anger was all a misunder-
standing-that Muslims misperceived
America as decadent and godless. Their so-
lution: Launch a vast campaign to educate
Muslims about America's true virtue. Much
of that effort, widely belittled in the press
and overseas, was quietly abandoned.

A faction led by political strategist Karl Rove believed soul-searching over "why Muslims hate us" was misplaced, Mr. Frum says. Mr. Rove summoned Mr. Lewis to address some White House staff- ers, military aides and staff members of the National Security Council. The histo- rian recited the modern failures of Arab and Muslim societies and argued that anti- Americanism stemmed from their own in- adequacies, not America's. Mr. Lewis also met privately with Mr. Bush's national se- curity adviser, Condoleezza Rice. Mr. Frum says he soon noticed Mr. Bush carry- ing a marked-up article by Mr. Lewis among his briefing papers. A White House spokesman declined to comment.

Says Mr. Frum: "Bernard comes with a very powerful explanation for why 9/11 happened. Once you understand it, the policy presents itself afterward."

His exposition and the policies it helped set in motion heralded a decisive break with the doctrine that prevailed during the Cold War. Containment, Mr. Kennan said, had "nothing to do with outward histrionics: with threats or blus- tering or superfluous gestures of outward 'toughness. '" It rested on the somber calculation that even the most aggressive enemy wouldn't risk its own demise by provoking war with a powerful U.S.

The Lewis Doctrine posits no such ratio- nal foe. It envisions not a clash of interests or even ideology, but of cultures. In the Mid- east, the font of the terrorism threat, Amer- ica has but two choices, "both disagree- able, " Mr. Lewis has written: "Get tough or get out. " His celebration, rather than shunning, of toughness is shared by sev- eral other influential U. S. Mideast experts, including Fouad Ajami and Richard Perle.

A central Lewis theme is that Muslims have had a chip on their shoulders since 1683, when the Ottomans failed for the sec- ond time to sack Christian Vienna. "Islam has been on the defensive" ever since, Mr. Lewis wrote in a 1990 essay called "The Roots of Muslim Rage, " where he de- scribed a "clash of civilizations, " a con- cept later popularized by Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington. For 300 years, Mr. Lewis says, Muslims have watched in horror and humiliation as the Christian civilizations of Europe and North America have overshadowed them militarily, economically and culturally.

"The question people are asking is why they hate us. That's the wrong question, " said Mr. Lewis on C-SPAN shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks. "In a sense, they've been hating us for centuries, and it's very natu- ral that they should. You have this millen- nial rivalry between two world religions, and now, from their point of view, the wrong one seems to be winning."

He continued: "More generally... you can't be rich, strong, successful and loved, particularly by those who are not rich, not strong and not successful. So the hatred is something almost axiomatic. The ques- tion which we should be asking is why do they neither fear nor respect us?"

For Mr. Lewis and officials influenced by his thinking, instilling respect or at least fear through force is essential for Ameri- ca's security. In this formulation, the cur- rent era of American dominance, some- times called "Pax Americana, " echoes ele- ments of Pax Britannica, imposed by the British Empire Mr. Lewis served as a young intelligence officer after graduate school.

Eight days after the Sept. 11 attacks, with the Pentagon still smoldering, Mr. Lewis addressed the U. S. Defense Policy Board. Mr. Lewis and a friend, Iraqi ex- ile leader Ahmad Chalabi-now a mem- ber of the interim Iraqi Governing Coun- cil-argued for a military takeover of Iraq to avert still-worse terrorism in the future, says Mr. Perle, who then headed the policy board.

A few months later, in a private dinner with Dick Cheney at the vice president's residence, Mr. Lewis explained why he was cautiously optimistic the U. S. could gradually build democracy in Iraq, say oth- ers who attended. Mr. Lewis also held forth on the dangers of appearing weak in the Muslim world, a lesson Mr. Cheney ap- parently took to heart. Speaking on NEC's "Meet the Press" just before the invasion of Iraq, Mr. Cheney said: "I firmly believe, along with men like Bernard Lewis, who is one of the great students of that part of the world, that strong, firm U. S. response to terror and to threats to the United States would go a long way, frankly, toward calm- ing things in that part of the world."

The Lewis Doctrine, in effect, had be- come U. S. policy.

"Bernard Lewis has been the single most important intellectual influence countering the conventional wisdom on managing the conflict between radical Is- lam and the West, " says Mr. Perle, who re- mains a close adviser to Defense Secre- tary Donald Rumsfeld. "The idea that a big part of the problem is failed societies on the Arab side is very important. That is not the point of view of the diplomatic es- tablishment."

Mr. Lewis declined to discuss his official contacts in Washington. When told his polit- ical influence was a focus of this article, he turned down an interview request. "It's still too early, " he said. "Let's see how things turn out" in Iraq. In speeches and articles, Mr. Lewis continues to advocate assertive U. S. actions in the Mideast, but his long- term influence is likely to turn on whether his neoconservative acolytes retain their power in Washington in years to come.

Born in London in 1916, Mr. Lewis was drawn to the study of history and foreign languages by a deep curiosity about "what things looked like from the other side, " he said on C-SPAN in April. He earned under- graduate and doctoral degrees in Mideast and Islamic history from the School of Ori- ental and African Studies at the University of London, then spent five years working on Mideast issues for British intelligence during World War II.

Among other things, his wartime ser- vice taught him the dangers of appease- ment, he told a seminar at the University of Toronto last spring. He said speeches • by foes of war in Iraq reminded him of the arguments of peace activists in the 1930s. "All I can say is thank God they didn't prevail then, " he said. "If they had, Hitler would have won the war and the Nazis would be ruling the world."

In 1945, Mr. Lewis returned to the Uni- versity of London as a professor, where he earned renown in Ottoman and Turk- ish history. He was lured to Princeton in 1974 and soon became a mentor to many of those now known as neoconservatives.

Mr. Perle recalls hearing Mr. Lewis speak in the early 1970s and inviting him lo lunch with Mr. Perle's then-boss, the ate Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washi- ngton. "Lewis became Jackson's guru, nore or less, " says Mr. Perle. Mr. Lewis ilso was an adviser to another Democrat, he late Daniel Patrick Moynihan, when llr. Moynihan was ambassador to the Inited Nations in the 1970s. He formed asting ties with several young Jackson ind Moynihan aides who went on to ap- ily his views to Iraq. Among them were kill Wolfowitz, now deputy defense sec- tary; Elliott Abrams, now National Se- urity Council Mideast chief: and Frank Jaffney Jr., a former Pentagon official, hiking with Mr. Lewis, Mr. Perle says, ras "like going to Delphi to see the ora- ie."

Mr. Lewis retired from teaching in 1986 but has maintained ties with many former students in high posts. One, Pen- tagon analyst Harold Rhode, has played prominent roles as Mr. Wolfowitz's ad- viser on Islamic affairs, as a planner of the Iraq occupation and as an aide to Pentagon strategist Andrew Marshall. Mr. Lewis dedicated his latest book, "The Crisis of Islam, " to Mr. Rhode-who says Mr. Lewis is "like a father to me."

Mr. Lewis is also close to government circles in Israel and Turkey-non-Arab lands he describes as the only successful modern states in the region. He warmly praises Kemal Attaturk, who made Turkey a secular republic after World War I by sup- pressing Islam. (He has also said the Otto- man Turks'killingof up to 1. 5 million Arme- nians in 1915 wasn't genocide but the bru- tal byproduct of war. It was a stance for which a French court convicted Mr. Lewis in 1995 under France's Holocaust-denial statute, imposing a token penalty. ) Israeli experts say Mr. Lewis's contacts with Turk- ish generals and politicians helped cement Israeli-Turkish military ties in the 1990s.

Mr. Lewis became politically involved with Israel by the mid-1970s, when he wrote an article for the American Jewish Committee publication Commentary. At a time when Israel was dead-set against a Palestinian state, he recommended that Is- rael "test the willingness" of the Palestine Liberation Organization to negotiate a two- state solution to the conflict.

But Mr. Lewis also wrote that Palestin- ian Arabs didn't have a historical claim to a state, because Palestine hadn't ex- isted as a country prior to British rule in 1918. Israeli leaders jumped on that part of his thesis. The late Prime Minister Golda Meir required her cabinet to read the article, says Amnon Cohen of Hebrew University in Jerusalem, who worked for the West Bank military government. He says Mrs. Meir summoned Mr. Lewis and "they spoke for hours. Her aides tried to end it, but Golda kept going and Bernard didn't want to be rude. She was very much in favor of his point" that Palestine as a nation had never existed.

Mr. Lewis began spending months at a time at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University in the 1980s. He became the confidant of successive Israeli prime min- isters, including Ariel Sharon. Mr. Cohen organizes an annual conference at He- brew University in honor of Mr. Lewis's birthday.

Mr. Wolfowitz took part by videocon- ference in 2002. Signalling the adminis- tration's acceptance of Mr. Lewis's pre- scription for Iraq. Mr. Wolfowitz said: "Bernard has taught how to understand the complex and important history of the Middle East, and use it to guide us where we will go next to build a better world for generations to come."

Mr. Lewis's work has many critics. Some academics say Mr. Lewis's descrip- tions of Arab and Muslim failures epito- mize what the late Edward Said of Colum- bia University dubbed "Oriental- ism"-the shading of history to justify Western conquest. Mideast historian Juan Cole of the University of Michigan praises Mr. Lewis's scholarly works ear- lier in his career but says his more-popu- lar writings of recent years tend to cari- cature Muslims as poor losers, helpless and enraged.

Mr. Cole is among those who say Mr. Lewis's call for military intervention to transform failed Muslim states risks mak- ing the culture clash between Islamic lands and the West worse. So far, they say, Iraq looks more like a breeding ground for terrorism than a showcase of democracy-not surprising, they say, given that the U. S. invaded an old and proud civilization.

"Lewis has lived so long, he's man- aged to live into an era when some peo- ple in Washington are reviving empire thinking, " says Mr. Cole. "He's never un- derstood the realities of political and so- cial mobilization and the ways they make empire untenable."

Ilan Pappe of Haifa University says Mr. Lewis's view that political cultures can be remade through force contributed to Israel's decision to invade Lebanon in 1982. "It took the Israelis 18 years, and 1, 000 soldiers killed, to abandon that strategy, " Mr. Pappe says. "If the Ameri- cans operate under the same assump- tions in Iraq, they'll fail the way the Is- raelis failed."

After Sept. 11, a book by Mr. Lewis called "What Went Wrong?" was a best- seller that launched the historian, at age 85, as an unlikely celebrity. Witty and a colorful storyteller, he hit the talk-show and lecture circuits, arguing in favor of U. S. intervention in Iraq as a first step toward democratic transformation in the Mideast. Historically, tyranny was for- eign to Islam, Mr. Lewis told audiences, while consensual government, if not elec- tions, has deep roots in the Mideast. He said Iraq, with its oil wealth, prior Brit- ish tutelage and long repression under Saddam Hussein, was the right place to start moving the Mideast toward an open political system.

Audiences lapped it up. At the Har- vard Club in New York last spring, guests crowded the main hall beneath a huge elephant head, sipping cocktails and wait- ing for a word with the historian before his speech. On a day when Baghdad was falling to U. S. forces, one woman wanted to know if the American victory would make Arabs more violent. Mr. Lewis po- litely deflected the question.

When the throng shifted, another in- terrogator pushed forward, this one clearly intent on the possible next phase of America's remolding of the Mideast. "Should we negotiate with Iran's ayatol- lahs?" asked Henry Kissinger, drink in hand. "Certainly not!" Mr. Lewis re- sponded.

Up on the podium, Mr. Lewis lam- basted the belief of some Mideast experts at the State Department and elsewhere that Arabs weren't ready for democracy- that a "friendly tyrant" was the best the U. S. could hope for in Iraq. "That policy, " he quipped, "is called 'pro-Arab.'"

Others, like himself, believe Iraqis are heirs to a great civilization, one fully capable, "with some guidance, " of demo- cratic rule, he said. "That policy, " he added with a rueful smile, "is called 'im- perialism.'"


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Superbowl psyche
Posted here Wednesday, February 04, 2004 at 7:22:49 AM    

from slate

Deep Thoughts... by the NYT editorial page: "Tempting as it is to single out a corporate or individual villain here, the incident is a cultural short-circuit. During the game, an enactment of rage. During halftime, an enactment of lust. During the ads, an acknowledgment of sexual dysfunction. During the dance, the peekaboo that exposed the pretense of it all."


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