Sunday, March 07, 2004

Kagan: power and Weakness
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 9:31:23 PM    

This is extremely helpful. The hobbes/kant argument needs to be understood: basically that europe can be civilized in the US plays the bad cop. Is there another policy possible?

Europe’s evolution to its present state occurred under the mantle of the U.S. security guarantee and could not have occurred without it. Not only did the United States for almost half a century supply a shield against such external threats as the Soviet Union and such internal threats as may have been posed by ethnic conflict in places like the Balkans. More important, the United States was the key to the solution of the German problem and perhaps still is. Germany’s Fischer, in the Humboldt University speech, noted two “historic decisions” that made the new Europe possible: “the usa’s decision to stay in Europe” and “France’s and Germany’s commitment to the principle of integration, beginning with economic links.” But of course the latter could never have occurred without the former. France’s willingness to risk the reintegration of Germany into Europe — and France was, to say the least, highly dubious — depended on the promise of continued American involvement in Europe as a guarantee against any resurgence of German militarism. Nor were postwar Germans unaware that their own future in Europe depended on the calming presence of the American military.

The United States, in short, solved the Kantian paradox for the Europeans. Kant had argued that the only solution to the immoral horrors of the Hobbesian world was the creation of a world government. But he also feared that the “state of universal peace” made possible by world government would be an even greater threat to human freedom than the Hobbesian international order, inasmuch as such a government, with its monopoly of power, would become “the most horrible despotism.”11 How nations could achieve perpetual peace without destroying human freedom was a problem Kant could not solve. But for Europe the problem was solved by the United States. By providing security from outside, the United States has rendered it unnecessary for Europe’s supranational government to provide it. Europeans did not need power to achieve peace and they do not need power to preserve it.

The current situation abounds in ironies. Europe’s rejection of power politics, its devaluing of military force as a tool of international relations, have depended on the presence of American military forces on European soil. Europe’s new Kantian order could flourish only under the umbrella of American power exercised according to the rules of the old Hobbesian order. American power made it possible for Europeans to believe that power was no longer important. And now, in the final irony, the fact that United States military power has solved the European problem, especially the “German problem,” allows Europeans today to believe that American military power, and the “strategic culture” that has created and sustained it, are outmoded and dangerous.

Most Europeans do not see the great paradox: that their passage into post-history has depended on the United States not making the same passage. Because Europe has neither the will nor the ability to guard its own paradise and keep it from being overrun, spiritually as well as physically, by a world that has yet to accept the rule of “moral consciousness,” it has become dependent on America’s willingness to use its military might to deter or defeat those around the world who still believe in power politics.

Some Europeans do understand the conundrum. Some Britons, not surprisingly, understand it best. Thus Robert Cooper writes of the need to address the hard truth that although “within the postmodern world [i.e., the Europe of today], there are no security threats in the traditional sense,” nevertheless, throughout the rest of the world — what Cooper calls the “modern and pre-modern zones” — threats abound. If the postmodern world does not protect itself, it can be destroyed. But how does Europe protect itself without discarding the very ideals and principles that undergird its pacific system?

“The challenge to the postmodern world,” Cooper argues, “is to get used to the idea of double standards.” Among themselves, Europeans may “operate on the basis of laws and open cooperative security.” But when dealing with the world outside Europe, “we need to revert to the rougher methods of an earlier era — force, preemptive attack, deception, whatever is necessary.” This is Cooper’s principle for safeguarding society: “Among ourselves, we keep the law but when we are operating in the jungle, we must also use the laws of the jungle.”

Cooper’s argument is directed at Europe, and it is appropriately coupled with a call for Europeans to cease neglecting their defenses, “both physical and psychological.” But what Cooper really describes is not Europe’s future but America’s present. For it is the United States that has had the difficult task of navigating between these two worlds, trying to abide by, defend, and further the laws of advanced civilized society while simultaneously employing military force against those who refuse to abide by those rules. The United States is already operating according to Cooper’s double standard, and for the very reasons he suggests. American leaders, too, believe that global security and a liberal order — as well as Europe’s “postmodern” paradise — cannot long survive unless the United States does use its power in the dangerous, Hobbesian world that still flourishes outside Europe.

What this means is that although the United States has played the critical role in bringing Europe into this Kantian paradise, and still plays a key role in making that paradise possible, it cannot enter this paradise itself. It mans the walls but cannot walk through the gate. The United States, with all its vast power, remains stuck in history, left to deal with the Saddams and the ayatollahs, the Kim Jong Ils and the Jiang Zemins, leaving the happy benefits to others.

An acceptable division?

Is this situation tolerable for the United States? In many ways, it is. Contrary to what many believe, the United States can shoulder the burden of maintaining global security without much help from Europe. The United States spends a little over 3 percent of its gdp on defense today. Were Americans to increase that to 4 percent — meaning a defense budget in excess of $500 billion per year — it would still represent a smaller percentage of national wealth than Americans spent on defense throughout most of the past half-century. Even Paul Kennedy, who invented the term “imperial overstretch” in the late 1980s (when the United States was spending around 7 percent of its gdp on defense), believes the United States can sustain its current military spending levels and its current global dominance far into the future. Can the United States handle the rest of the world without much help from Europe? The answer is that it already does. The United States has maintained strategic stability in Asia with no help from Europe. In the Gulf War, European help was token; so it has been more recently in Afghanistan, where Europeans are once again “doing the dishes”; and so it would be in an invasion of Iraq to unseat Saddam. Europe has had little to offer the United States in strategic military terms since the end of the Cold War — except, of course, that most valuable of strategic assets, a Europe at peace.

The United States can manage, therefore, at least in material terms. Nor can one argue that the American people are unwilling to shoulder this global burden, since they have done so for a decade already. After September 11, they seem willing to continue doing so for a long time to come. Americans apparently feel no resentment at not being able to enter a “postmodern” utopia. There is no evidence most Americans desire to. Partly because they are so powerful, they take pride in their nation’s military power and their nation’s special role in the world.


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Saudi situation NYT
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 11:23:34 AM    

Current Saudi realities. Read

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/magazine/07SAUDIS.html


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Tainter resource
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 10:59:40 AM    

Further on Tainter see

http://dieoff.com/page134.htm

for a recent article

and for an audio speech..

http://www.archaeologychannel.org/commentary/Tainter.html#interview


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China and military
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 10:22:30 AM    

Thi is importnat, to see trends

China hikes spending on military
 
 
China has announced another large increase in its military spending.

The increase of nearly 12% - higher than that of 2003 - will see an extra $2.6bn allocated to defence, officially raising the budget to more than $25bn

 

The reason this is so important is because China is in deep trouble socially. We may see the move towards military exploits - the US, China - to cover over social failure.


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Money reinvention
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 10:17:47 AM    

Worth a browse

http://www.reinventingmoney.com/

A basic site with resources. The way money works is crucial for future changes.


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American innovation
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 9:32:36 AM    

But

THE SECRET OF OUR SAUCE

By Thomas L. Friedman

New York Times

March 7, 2004

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/opinion/07FRIE.html

Yamini Narayanan is an Indian-born 35-year-old with a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Oklahoma. After graduation, she worked for a U.S.

computer company in Virginia and recently moved back to Bangalore with her husband to be closer to family. When I asked her how she felt about the outsourcing of jobs from her adopted country, America, to her native country, India, she responded with a revealing story:

"I just read about a guy in America who lost his job to India and he made a T-shirt that said, `I lost my job to India and all I got was this [lousy] T-shirt.' And he made all kinds of money." Only in America, she said, shaking her head, would someone figure out how to profit from his own unemployment. And that, she insisted, was the reason America need not fear outsourcing to India: America is so much more innovative a place than any other country.

The problem is, most third world countries have group solidarity and craft traditions that we lack. Our tech world has floated on top of a rural and urban underclass that for many lacks these tradtions. Also, rising expectations, going from 3 to ten dollars a day, is much easier to live with and more energizing than going from 150 a day to eighty. And we have a looong way to go.


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Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 9:27:01 AM    

Symptom

SWEDISH BOGS FLOODING ATMOSPHERE WITH METHANE American Geophysical Union / ScienceBlog Wednesday, February 25, 2004

http://www.scienceblog.com/community/article2366.html


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Kerry as Kennedy, campaign language.
Posted here Sunday, March 07, 2004 at 7:22:19 AM    

On what Kerry's approach should be: regan vs Kennedy..

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/opinion/07GREE.html

Kerry needs to also be in support of a vigorous economny of tech and entrepreneurship, including local business and agriculture.  This can be consistent with environmental concerns if the icnetives move away from extraction to tech solutions to energy, water, networking young people. Multilateralism, and a shift from security to opportunity would also help. We need to lessen the neeeds for military interevention and be prepared to be successful when we do.

Bush is obviously trying to use 911 to define a presidency, when the country should have gone down an alternative path of democracy and opportunity and environmental reason.


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