Thursday, April 08, 2004

Posted here Thursday, April 08, 2004 at 9:56:56 PM     Read this pre-release of an article by Schell from The Nation, posted at http://www.nationinstitute.org/tomdispatch/index.mhtml?pid=1362 scroll down The Phantom Sovereign By Jonathan Schell The Iraqi struggle for independence from American rule has begun in earnest. US forces there now face a double insurrection-one part Sunni Muslim, the other Shiite Muslim-that threatens at the same time to turn into a civil war. Only the Kurdish north is quiet. With these events, US policy for Iraq has taken leave of reality as thoroughly as America's claims regarding weapons of mass destruction did before the war. The policy was declared on November 21, when Paul Bremer, head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, announced that on June 30 of this year the "occupation of Iraq will end," and Iraq will then enjoy "sovereignty." Since then, news commentators and officials have habitually told the public that on that date the United States "will hand over sovereignty to the Iraqi people" (in the words of Dan Senor, a senior adviser to the CPA), who will then enjoy what is commonly called an "interim constitution." Every word of these short phrases is based on assumptions radically at odds with the facts. ********

Posted here Thursday, April 08, 2004 at 9:49:17 PM     Bill Greider points to issues facing Kerry, like will hsi economic policy be a pro free trade in the business sense, or look to deal with the economic problems of the middle class? http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040426&;s=greider Note, the ; should not be in the url John Kerry is borne aloft by party unity and the overriding imperative of defeating Bush, but the senator has entered a perilous zone where the outcome may depend more on the content of his character. During the next few months, Kerry must somehow fend off the smears and caricatures broadcast by Bush's attack machine and, at the same time, define himself in more convincing terms for the broad audience of voters, many of whom know little or nothing about him. Who is John Kerry? What does he believe about the country? What do people get if they elect him? ********

Posted here Thursday, April 08, 2004 at 9:34:19 PM     We are right on course, if you predicted, as many did, that the threat to empire would escalate and Bush would ride that pony. We see increasing trouble between now and the election. How much? What kind? Increasing militarization outside the country is plausible. Blair's visit next week, which might have been a confrontation, now might be a new alliance in desperate times. But then, how much militarization inside the US? Watch Bush tendencies to cast the Kerry campaign as "Illegal", as in its use of campaign funds for ads. The hope is that cool heads will prevail throughout the governance, business and media world, but we can't count on it. There is lots of work to do. Oswald Spengler, in his "Decline of the West" written in Germany between the wars, said that an empire must act tough inside and out, because any sign of weakness and it will be torn apart but those who see the possibilities of arbitrage (the parts are worth more than the whole.) In order to understand what is happening, it is also important to grasp the depth of division within the country. Then, read history, and then think of drama. What is going on is Shakespearian. ********

Posted here Thursday, April 08, 2004 at 1:31:39 PM     Oil future.. Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show By JEFF GERTH and STEPHEN LABATON Published: April 8, 2004 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.html?hp The Royal Dutch/Shell Group's oil production in Oman has been declining for years, belying the company's optimistic reports and raising doubts about a vital question in the Middle East: whether new technology can extend the life of huge but mature oil fields. Internal company documents and technical papers show that the Yibal field, Oman's largest, began to decline rapidly in 1997. Yet Sir Philip Watts, Shell's former chairman, said in an upbeat public report in 2000 that "major advances in drilling" were enabling the company "to extract more from such mature fields." The internal Shell documents suggest that the figure for proven oil reserves in Oman was mistakenly increased in 2000, resulting in a 40 percent overstatement. ********

Posted here Thursday, April 08, 2004 at 12:51:13 PM     Thoughts on the Rice 9/11 testimony Two issues emerged for me. First, how much more like a bureaucrat she is than any member of the panel, even Thompson and Lehman have a touch of humanity in their voice and cadence. A humane mind rather than a technocratic one is essential to good government. The second was the deep one of managerial philosophy. If the people (like the principals) are in the room together, they learn from listening and increase the spread of their understanding. If it is just passed along the bureaucratic line, there is no cross learning. Since Bush is, apparently, not a learner type and likes it digested and short, that culture has moved down the line to isolate everyone. ********