Thursday, April 22, 2004

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 5:43:35 PM     Fisk on civil war in Iraq - important I've just been watching over the Internet an interview from an Australian TV program called Lateline, with Robert Fisk - the excellent Middle East correspondent for The Independent newspaper. Fisk's remarks suggest that predictions about an impending civil war in Iraq may well be incorrect. This is some of what Fisk says: "I think, although unfortunately my prediction of serious resistance more than a year ago is proving tragically to be correct, I think I was probably wrong in saying there would be a civil war. The only people who are talking about civil war at the moment in Iraq are the Americans and the British and the Western journalists who suck up their lines and push it back out as their own analysis. I haven't actually met an Iraqi who wants a civil war or who's talked about a civil war. There's never been a civil war in Iraq. I rather suspect that this danger of civil war - and I'm guilty before the war quite rightly predicting there might be - is being pushed out by the Americans and the British in order to frighten the Iraqis into obedience. 'If you don't put your guns, down look what might happen, you'll have civil war.' I think the reason why they're wrong and why I was wrong is that they never appreciated that the Iraqi tribal system covers both communities - many Shiite tribes also are Sunnis, they're in the same tribes. We can take this as likely. But, the US has achieved something interesting in the negotiated settlement. It suggests that a political process may emerge. To me the question is, is there going to be an alliance against the US, especially given their recent statements from the admin that there will be only a limited turn over, no real sovereignty, to the Iraqi's ********

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 3:18:25 PM     Good background on press coverage of Bin Laden and Iraq before 9/11 and the incursion. http://www.mediachannel.org/views/dissector/affalert183.shtml ********

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 1:43:42 PM     Probably worth reading Bush's speech from yesterday. Try thinking through what you really think of what he says. Don't just type cast, think it. What is "wrong" is not so obvious. The text and video are at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04/20040421-5.html One of the issues that stands out for me is th repeat use of the word "tough" and use of "High Noon." It suggests a one track mind, a fearful mind, an adult with an egregious childhood mind, and it ignores the rest of what is going on in history, as in the last few posts. What is there about american politics that makes this happen? From the founding fathers we had "mainfest destiny" to be an empire. Are we now at the edge? By election the country will be different. Iraq will have moved to a new phase, the economy will reveal its strength and or wekness, security issues will have taken several new turns, Michael Moore's movie will be out this summer. ********

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 9:33:00 AM     Tom Dispatch has a good article today by Jonathan Schell on the militarization of the US. http://www.nationinstitute.org/tomdispatch/ The trend is simple: as more money - 700 billion, goes to the military, and support, it creates careers, corporations, bureaucracies, and the people who grow up in them become militarists, if not hard, at least soft. The impact on future policy is simply numeric: more people over time have their careers in this work than in other kinds, and promotions upward carry that perspective, relationships and expertize into policy levels. ********

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 8:53:18 AM     On Japanese science and tech priorities http://www.atip.org/public/atip.reports.04/atip04.016.pdf ********

Posted here Thursday, April 22, 2004 at 8:30:22 AM     The problem of the moment is that we are spending billions to clean UPI a Bush mess. If we had done well in Afghanistan, allowed the inspectors to contain Saddam, dealt with Pakistan and Korea, we would have been better off by billions. If we had dealt with the general economic problem facing the US of declining competitiveness because of the rise of China (and Europe), paid attention to education and poverty in the US, we might have done well. I would like to see an economic model of how the US gets out of this mess, these debts, this declining economic leverage. ********