Posted here Friday, July 23, 2004 at 11:51:20 AM    

From the 9/11 report. This problem of segmentation is with us in many ways. For example, the rise of multinationals and outsourcing is leading to a world where government law is being replaced by private interests, but the law is not following into this blind spot.

The September 11 attacks fell into the void between the foreign and domestic threats.The foreign intelligence agencies were watching overseas, alert to foreign threats to U.S. interests there.The domestic agencies were waiting for evidence of a domestic threat from sleeper cells within the United States. No one was looking for a foreign threat to domestic targets.The threat that was coming was not from sleeper cells. It was foreign—but from foreigners who had infiltrated into the United States.

I've suggested for a decade that we will just have to get used to large scale disasters, of which nuclear accidents would be one kind. But that "accidents" are intentional, as in terrorism, brings into play a much more difficult problem: how we respond to events that are caused by human agents deliberately. the unconscious goes wild and seeks to lash out, and the possibilities give rise to cynicism, despair - and ambitions. At the same time, the world population is fairly sane. It is leadership tied to old institutions and driven by new possibilities (finance, energy in the context of the failing nation state in the west, and new nationalisms in Asia) that make it dicey.

Posted here Friday, July 23, 2004 at 11:04:12 AM    

I've mentioned the problem of Iran and the Israel/US tendency to want to go in.

But meanwhile Hazim al-Shaalan, defense minister in the new Iraqi quasi-government declares, “Iranian intrusion has been vast and unprecedented since the establishment of the Iraqi state.” By such statements the “fully sovereign” regime, headed by CIA operative and homicidal brute Iyad Allawi, abets plans for an American intrusion into Iran.

from www.counterpunch.org for today

Posted here Friday, July 23, 2004 at 10:56:17 AM    

Fascinating to watch how gamy it has all become. In this case, the Bush campaign says Kerry needs to come out of the convention 15% ahead inorder to be catching on.  hence he loses. Reporters pick up on this and use it rather than analyze it.

from columbia journalism review's http://www.campaigndesk.org/

The Bush camp planted a stake in the ground on July 4, when Bush-Cheney campaign strategist Matthew Dowd released a memo (widely reported on in the days thereafter) asserting that "Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of the convention." Writing for The Hill on July 14, former Kerry staffer Mark Mellman tried to lower expectations. What Dowd was really saying, Mellman wrote, is that "Kerry 'should' be ahead by 15 points," even though Dowd doesn't really believe Kerry will have such a lead. Mellman, naturally, implies that any bounce at all is a good sign: "There are not a lot of voters left for Kerry to get, to give the ticket a bounce. That's a sign of real strength."

Posted here Friday, July 23, 2004 at 10:36:06 AM    

Here is a report that helps get some local flavor from Iraq. It shows the complexity of appearances and realities.

from today's http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/betweenthelines/

Are the terrorists losing?

Iraqis remain concerned about insurgent bombings – many of them aimed at Iraqis, not coalition troops. But some bloggers think it's good news that the insurgents are being forced to employ these tactics because it shows their fundamental weakness. Here's Sam at Mesopotamian:

"Yesterday they struck again, one car bombing and two assassinations of Government officials. This is the only thing they can do. They had hoped that they could develop their fight to control areas and confront the Iraqis in open warfare. But they are being defeated and forced to fall back to earlier tactics, and with much difficulty. The ROUNDUP has started. To be sure, they will be able to deliver some more sabotage and terror but the price they are going to pay is going to go up and up. We have always thought that the Iraqis are better able to take care of internal security. You could see that so clearly in recent days. The police raids on crime dens were such a graphic illustration of the difference. The intelligent recognition by the policemen of who is criminal and who is innocent was so apparent. The people in the street, mostly vendors and shopkeepers, were happy even as bullets were flying all over the place. … "

Omar at Iraq the Model also gives the new government good marks for its initial efforts to improve security, and reports that "the new observation this time is that some of the confiscated weapons and ammunition are not from the ususal origins you can see in Iraq (automatic rifles other than the Ak47, bazookas other than the RPG7 and other devices) and these weapons don’t belong to the stuff left behind by the old army after the 9th of April 2003." They were smuggled in, he concludes.

Smuggled weapons might sound like a bad thing, but Omar thinks to the contrary it may indicate that the supply of leftover weapons from the Saddam regime may be drying up: "This is a good sign indeed because when getting weapons becomes more difficult and a lot more expensive than before we should expect a decline in the frequency of terrorist attacks in Iraq."