Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Posted here Tuesday, October 19, 2004 at 8:32:01 PM     testing http://calacanis.weblogsinc.com/entry/4349135256845547/ ********

Posted here Tuesday, October 19, 2004 at 8:27:30 PM     Good essay I recommend. Sobsering, excerpt "An era of instability..." (listed in left column there) http://www.pinr.com/ Until the failure of Operation Iraqi Freedom became plainly evident, there was a brief period in which neoconservative and Wilsonian liberal writers put forward the idea that, rather than globalization, American "empire" was the destiny of world politics -- the formula for world order. Carrying forward the claim that America is the indispensable nation, the new imperialists envisioned a world in which the United States would spread market democracy and police world capitalism overtly, using its military supremacy to enforce an order that other powers would have to accept because they would have no alternative. ********

Posted here Tuesday, October 19, 2004 at 4:55:59 PM     People are reading polls as if the were snapshots of reality. The are highl technique dependent and small numbers. So an conclusion requires an art of interpretation. People are driving themselves nuts with the numbers as if it was a basketkball game where 51-48 means a clear winner. Ther are some ke issues.   new registrations. looks like the kerry ahead cellphone users not polled, means urban sophisticates and young peoppe, probably kerry advantage swing voters, focus groups seem to show a kerry advantage need to only win certain states. drift is for kerry issues will make people more frustrated with bush. Differentiating views of the candidates and issues, more complex, favor kerry My own current judgement (dare I call it that?) is final Kerry about 53%, lots of electoral college. ********