Tuesday, December 07, 2004


In april I posted the following. Striking to see how little has changed.
 

(check overview in the categores of the right)

The way the world looks this week. April 15 2004

 

The US and Iraq, given that the danger for the US perspective is that Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are too liable to become fundamentalists states, with a nuclear capacity. It no longer matters how we got into Iraq, the situation is deeply out of control. Note that with travel problems into Iraq, we are getting very little reporting.

 

And where totalitarian ME countries want an alliance with the US to keep their own people controlled, creating a very bad set of choices for the US between old style national elites or a kind of chaos that looks like it would go fundamentalist. The US supports old style nations, including Israel, or lets the situation go into very stressful conflict, of which the breakup of the old Yugoslavia is just a hint.

 

The US political situation. Where Iraq *does* matter, and the whole style of the admin, for its ideological approach, contrary to election rhetoric, was set in advance, on the economy and foreign affairs, to go right and concerned to bring America back to a rural past. The contest between Bush and Kerry, or even including Nader, may not be large enough to give any real options on the bigger questions, reducing the election to a blip on the forces unleased by WW2 US prosperity and its decline in the face of knowledge's capacity to spread world wide.

 

In a context where apology for wrong is probably needed - from the Indigenous Americas, Latin American interference, the penetration of Asia in Japan with Admiral Perry, and China with the opium wars (few I the US know what that name really means), and more recently for creating the ME boundaries, the reliance on oil, and the creation of the Taliban, and its blowback into the increased capacity for violence in the region.

 

The 9/11 hearings and the president's press conference set a style of no deep apaologies.

 

The economy, where long term balancing of the US wealth in relation to the rest of the world requires a declining dollar, and declining wages, and where elites will try to milk the situation to preserve wealth at the cost of everyone else, and have been very successful at doing this. The jobs report of an increase in 300,000 looks bogus. Pressures in the labor ndepartment, federal hiring of 150,000, and 80% as part time jobs suggest that Bush is wrong.

 

Technology, where the alignment of tech with money making is a major part of the concentration of economic wealth paradigm, with less and less profit in a monopoly rewarded economics of all against all. Moreover tech tends to imply a world view that wants to call itself secular, but it really is a religion in disguise, and this is a deep issue hardly conscious. The result has been that tech is not used for human betterment except in so far as the market can make choices - the SUV and technologies of control and surveillance. We need a new vision of a humane technics.

 

The rise of the mercenary "contract security" and others, a very large number in Iraq, point to a market governed mentality.

 

And the tech and economy dovetail back onto politics, aligning them together. Fascism is the increasingly polite word to describe this.

 

China along with Taiwan and Korea, with Cheney's visit.

 

And long term

 

Population, not just the total, but the makeup of the total, in age, and culture. It is not easy for anyone to call this a kind of warfare, but it is.

 

Environment, with degradations affecting much of the planet, making daily life harder for most people, and miserable for way too many, and with the possibilities of major collapse, in fish, water and plague.

 

Culture is increasingly trivialized towards market segments rather than humane values. The total market, product, life style images, the spirit of advertising and the image of life implied by the whole need to be compared, first to the past, and for example, that side of the catholic church that built cathedrals, talked about life, death marriage, childhood and motherhood (yes, I know the problems, I am talking about the positive cultural imagine), and embedded it in music, art, and meditation, colorful ceremonies in beautifully architected spaces. Then to compare the market world with what could be, taking things like the medieval church, the Japanese landscape, and community coherence seriously, in searching for a better future than our current options seem to allow for.

 

Knowing that in the past quality went with aristocracy (village cultures however were vital), and the modern goes with a tendency towards democratic individualism. A vital individualism with community aesthetic has to be the goal, for artists firstly, philosophers and educators second, and those involved with governance of course. The alternative is a drug based techno fascism that is not even attractive.

 

The repositioning of business and technology, now self serving sub maximizing activities, into a more humane vision of a sustainable and worthwhile humanity.


11:03:38 AM    

An important book and its review, getting closest to what is happening in the US.

 The nationalism thing  Guardian Weekly, UK review by Martin Woollacott

http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianweekly/story/0,12674,1363770,00.html

 

America, Right or Wrong (HarperCollins)

by Anatol Lieven

 

We should have seen it coming. All the signs were there in the 1990s the

mania about resisting outside influences, the narrow religious beliefs,

the harking back to a golden age, the sense of being under threat from

modernity, the readiness to use violent means. The roots of it went back

centuries. But it took the attacks of 9/11 for us to realize how powerful

was this burgeoning extremism. Whether the world can deal with it

effectively is the critical question of our times.

He ends with

Whatever the internal contradictions between and within the various

strands of American nationalism, the result today is a kind of magical

thinking which touches reality only occasionally. The result, Lieven

argues, is that, instead of the mature nationalism of a satisfied and

dominant state, American nationalism is more akin to that of late

developing and insecure states such as Wilhelmine Germany and Tsarist

Russia.

I've been reading lots of suggestions on what to do with the fragmented and storyless Democratic Party. One suggestion is to set up a string of thinktanks, not to push message, but to back off and go back to school. Looking at the right wing model of taking twenty years to set up its thinking capacity toward getting a message which is simple and understandable and rooted in solid (if not quite correct) historical analysis.

 

The Democrat are torn between one group that is free market, military strength and expand the economy vs another which is environmental concerned, concerned with poverty, and sees the family destroyed by economic forces. The official party is, more than many of us would like, attached to the former. The old language of revolution vs. reform won't work. Revolution destroys even more.

 

What we need is a slow evolution toward new corporate charters, new systems of justice and fairness, more education.

 

Let's add some thoughts on the economy, from the Economist

Many American policymakers talk as though it is better to rely entirely on a falling dollar to solve, somehow, all their problems. Conceivably, it could happen—but such a one-sided remedy would most likely be far more painful than they imagine. America's challenge is not just to reduce its current-account deficit to a level which foreigners are happy to finance by buying more dollar assets, but also to persuade existing foreign creditors to hang on to their vast stock of dollar assets, estimated at almost $11 trillion. A fall in the dollar sufficient to close the current-account deficit might destroy its safe-haven status. If the dollar falls by another 30%, as some predict, it would amount to the biggest default in history: not a conventional default on debt service, but default by stealth, wiping trillions off the value of foreigners' dollar assets.

The dollar's loss of reserve-currency status would lead America's creditors to start cashing those cheques—and what an awful lot of cheques there are to cash. As that process gathered pace, the dollar could tumble further and further. American bond yields (long-term interest rates) would soar, quite likely causing a deep recession. Americans who favour a weak dollar should be careful what they wish for. Cutting the budget deficit looks cheap at the price.

And Krugman on Social Security

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/07/opinion/07krugman.html?oref=login

Nonetheless, the politics of privatization depend crucially on convincing the public that the system is in imminent danger of collapse, that we must destroy Social Security in order to save it.

And from Kevin Drum

www.washingtonmonthly.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/4217

I'M SHOCKED, I TELL YOU, SHOCKED!....Ah, those moral values. Via Jeff Jarvis, we learn today that national concern over moral decay on TV might have been a wee bit overstated:

The number of indecency complaints had soared dramatically to more than 240,000 in the previous year, [FCC chairman Michael] Powell said. The figure was up from roughly 14,000 in 2002, and from fewer than 350 in each of the two previous years. There was, Powell said, “a dramatic rise in public concern and outrage about what is being broadcast into their homes.”

What Powell did not reveal—apparently because he was unaware—was the source of the complaints. According to a new FCC estimate obtained by Mediaweek, nearly all indecency complaints in 2003—99.8 percent—were filed by the Parents Television Council, an activist group.

Just to put that into raw numbers, it means that last year the FCC received a grand total of 480 complaints aside from the mass spammings from PTC. Out of a population of 300 million. Does that sound like a groundswell of outrage to you?

 


9:50:17 AM