Saturday, April 17, 2004

Posted here Saturday, April 17, 2004 at 11:10:57 AM     One theme in the 9/11 article is that during Clinton the FBI was taken up with the issue of drugs. It suggests that in hindsight the drug issue was a distraction for america from the real issues of US impact on the world.   ********

Posted here Saturday, April 17, 2004 at 11:02:23 AM     Very good article on the current state of the 9/11 commission. NYT sunday http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/18/politics/18SEPT.html?hp I once did a scenarios exercise within the CIA, and got to see and experience the atmosphere. I concluded that control was more important than conversation, isolated fact more important than story weaving and comparisons. I also saw, through that and other connections living in Washington, that the number of issues screaming for attention is huge.The two normal ways of dealing with overload, intuition and collegiality, both tended to fail. The first because intuition was not in touch with the salient realities, and second, collegiality meant contact with those who are like minded. The result is, it is almost impossible to feel smart in the higher positions. The real charge against Bush is that he was so dominated by a priori thinking, and supported by a staff of has beens who did the same, that responsiveness never had a chance. The charge against Clinton turns out to be a charge against the country: pursuing him to the point that personal facts like Monica broke to the surface and required massive defense. That is a complaint about the right, the press, and the public. ********

Posted here Saturday, April 17, 2004 at 9:52:29 AM     History works perverse. If there is a real fight with the local opposition in Iraq, since most opinion is now to halt the violence and that Muqtada was wrong, the fight will give Bush the chance to act as part of an actual majority of world opinion, and by implication, be with the good guys. Indeed, as the strategy moves to save Iraq from a nasty civil war, and the broad support in Europe and Asia is clear (as well as in Iraq)  the fact of the US incursion will tend to grow dimmer. The balance will be things like the Woodward book, Kerry pushing, and the 9/11 hearings, that will keep the mistakes in front of us.   As I see it there are some emerging goals 1. a reasonable Iraq, part of a multinational alliance of multinational oriented regimes, in this case fairly democratic. 2. A real shift to multi nationalism 3. a reforming of the international economic game. This is made harder now that India and China are emerging winners under the current rules, and the US may be fading.  The elites in India and China will need to get satiated with their victories before real reform is possible. ********