Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Use of robust social security for a weakened economy
Posted here Tuesday, February 17, 2004 at 12:08:20 PM    

on social security. Note that it is fine, but Greenspan wants to cut benefits so more money is available for the general treasury. This, following on the previous article, suggests that folks like Greenspan and Bush will use all stops to keep the economy out of trouble, and that means using resources - like social security

It is worth noting that Social Security is currently running a large surplus and is projected to continue to run annual surpluses for more than two decades into the future. The Social Security trustees projections show that the fund's trust will be able to support all scheduled benefit payments for nearly forty years into the future. If Social Security benefits are cut, without any corresponding reduction in the tax rate (which is exactly Mr.

Greenspan's recommendation), then this would mean that Social Security taxes are being used to finance the general budget, not Social Security.This point is especially important in this context, since Mr. Greenspan had chaired the 1982 Commission that proposed a set of Social Security tax increases that were designed to build up a large surplus to help defray the costs of the baby boomers' retirement in later years. In other words, Mr. Greenspan's argument was that itwas desirable to raise Social Security taxes above the levels needed to support the program in the eighties, nineties, and zeros, so that the tax rate would be somewhat lower than would otherwise be necessary in the twenties and thirties. If benefits are now cut below the levels that had been scheduled, then it breaks the link between Social Security taxes and Social Security benefits. Social Security taxes were simply used to finance the general budget.

The Social Security tax is highly regressive because it only applies to wage income and it is capped at approximately $85,000, so that wage income above this level is not subject to the tax. It is extremely unlikely Congress ever would have approved such a regressive tax to support the general budget. It would have been appropriate to note, in describing Mr. Greenspan's proposal, thatthe cumulative surplus in the trust fund is now approaching $2 trillion. This would give readers an idea of the extraordinary deception involved in proposing to cut Social Security benefits as a way of reducing the federal budget deficit.


********
On intrest rates and the economy (see the article..)
Posted here Tuesday, February 17, 2004 at 12:02:21 PM    

On the economy, the more you know that is solid and systemic, the better.

folks, all blame aside, I must tell you in advance that this story or movie does not have a happy ending. In terms of timing it may not be high noon, but High Noon it will be in terms of an ultimate outcome. Because in a finance-based economy that depends on more and more low cost money in order to thrive, the game ends when either the “more and more” or the “low cost” modifiers are replaced with “less” or “higher cost.” Let me explain with the two following charts.


********