Wednesday, March 10, 2004

Japan high growth rate.
Posted here Wednesday, March 10, 2004 at 8:41:43 AM    

When we aren't looking... note that new spending is corporations buying from corporations. The "people" can safely be left out of the cycle, think business economists..

Japanese growth at 13-year high
 
 
Japan has unexpectedly cut its output estimate for the last three months of 2003, but economic growth remains at its fastest pace in 13 years.

Gross domestic product was up 6.4% year on year in the last quarter of 2003, a sharp cut from the earlier 7% estimate.

Analysts said the revision did nothing to dent the overall picture of a broad- based and vigorous recovery.

Japanese shares, which were earlier down by almost 1.3% in response to Wall Street, recovered somewhat on the news.

The Nikkei index closed down 98 points, or 0.9%, at 11,443.

Starting to spend

Most analysts had expected the GDP figure to be revised upwards, calculating that reports of stronger corporate investment should be starting to pay dividends.

In fact, the latest data showed that companies were running down their inventories, rather than investing in new equipment and materials.

Morgan Stanley economist Takehiro Sato said, however, that the inventory drawdown was a positive signal for the future, clearing the way for a fresh surge of corporate demand.

When companies start spending seriously once more, the current rapid pace of growth should accelerate, economists believe.

Several facts about Japan, even at the low point, it had a positive balance of payments, and during the "asian crisis" it bought vast amounts of south asia assets at low prices, including industrial capacity. The US is not in this position.


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